NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	94		Excitement	5.3 [744]		MVP	Marcus Camby (NYK): +11.4%
New York Knicks	105		Comeback	1.9 [733]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -28.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Curry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	5	90%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.01	0.04	16	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Terry Mills	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	10	55%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loy Vaught	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Lindsey Hunter	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	4	10%	-0.08	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	-0.02	-0.05	14	49%	-0.04	5	-0.07	11	82%	0.01
Grant Hill	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.26,-0.28,-0.28,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.23	-0.06	0.00	21	33%	-0.15	5	-0.13	6	83%	0.01

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.14	0.01	0.04	14	73%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Larry Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	11	58%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	15	59%	0.11	3	-0.07	9	56%	-0.03
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Allan Houston	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	16	38%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Ewing	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.00	16	40%	-0.07	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	28.2	20.6	30.6	2.0	32.2	141.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +35.8%

DET -7.6%

NYK +16.4%

NYK +5.0%

NYK +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	NYK	NBA	DET	NYK	NBA
this game	14.1	17.4	15.2	103.3	114.1	101.7
season	14.1	16.1		104.2	100.0
opponent	15.8	15.3		98.8	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.3	16.0	11.4	13.9	14.1
NYK	15.3	19.2	18.6	16.7	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	57	57	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.30	13	-24	37	14.1	14.1	-0.04	17.0	18.0	-0.94
Loy Vaught	9	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-9	7	15.9	13.9	2.02	17.6	17.4	0.18
Michael Curry	22	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.14	-2	-9	7	14.2	14.0	0.15	16.6	17.7	-1.04
John Crotty	31	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-3	-5	15.4	13.4	1.95	16.4	17.9	-1.51
Lindsey Hunter	61	60	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-5	-1	13.2	15.8	-2.64	17.9	16.4	1.51
Jerome Williams	51	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.19	-6	-5	-1	14.1	14.0	0.03	17.5	17.3	0.15
Grant Hill	78	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.07	-12	1	-13	13.9	14.8	-0.91	17.2	18.3	-1.13
Terry Mills	63	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.16	-21	10	-31	14.2	13.7	0.51	17.6	16.8	0.82
Jerry Stackhouse	83	84	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.18	-11	0	-11	14.0	14.7	-0.75	17.8	13.4	4.40

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	64	62	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.11	16	-5	21	16.9	18.5	-1.65	13.7	14.8	-1.07
Allan Houston	80	79	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-1	13	17.7	15.2	2.56	14.0	14.7	-0.69
Chris Childs	51	49	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.11	8	3	5	16.9	18.0	-1.19	14.4	13.7	0.70
Latrell Sprewell	64	65	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	4	3	17.2	17.8	-0.62	14.4	13.3	1.01
Patrick Ewing	57	57	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	4	3	17.9	16.5	1.37	13.2	15.5	-2.34
Larry Johnson	59	60	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.14	2	9	-7	18.3	15.8	2.45	14.5	13.2	1.32
Charlie Ward	48	48	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.14	1	10	-9	17.0	17.8	-0.86	13.0	15.2	-2.17
Kurt Thomas	37	35	0.17	0.34	-0.17	0.11	2	9	-7	16.9	17.7	-0.79	15.9	12.9	3.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.87,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 66, IND 85	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
WAS 89, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.4,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.88,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.7%
GSW 78, MIA 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.7%