NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	116		Excitement	7.7 [309]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +29.8%
Miami Heat	113		Comeback	1.1 [597]		LVP	Gary Harris (DEN): -8.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.30	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.17	0.13	0.01	19	69%	0.33	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Wilson Chandler	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.05	0.00	13	68%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Emmanuel Mudiay	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.04	-0.01	9	61%	0.19	2	-0.07	10	90%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0.09	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.09	0.07	0.04	0.01	16	58%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.01	9	44%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Juan Hernangomez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	7	56%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.04
Gary Harris	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	10	37%	-0.02	1	-0.07	4	75%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.06	-0.00	11	71%	0.24	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	13	48%	0.10	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	15	61%	0.10	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.03
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.01	7	69%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.06	-0.00	12	53%	0.01	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	8	56%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Okaro White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.5	29.2	14.4	23.8	2.0	38.1	135.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +23.9%

DEN +11.0%

DEN +1.8%

DEN +14.9%

MIA -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	14.2	14.6	14.8	117.2	111.9	107.7
season	14.4	15.4		111.6	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.5		105.9	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.4	13.0	15.9	14.7	14.2
MIA	14.8	14.2	14.1	15.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	73	74	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.28	16	-13	29	14.4	13.7	0.63	14.6	14.7	-0.19
Danilo Gallinari	78	78	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.37	12	-9	21	14.0	14.9	-0.84	14.3	15.8	-1.53
Gary Harris	77	75	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.35	6	-3	9	14.3	14.0	0.31	14.4	15.1	-0.64
Emmanuel Mudiay	63	65	0.52	-0.01	0.53	0.43	3	0	3	14.2	14.2	-0.09	15.5	13.1	2.41
Wilson Chandler	62	63	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.35	4	-1	5	14.5	13.7	0.74	15.3	13.5	1.73
Jamal Murray	58	63	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.13	-1	4	-5	14.1	14.3	-0.13	13.8	15.9	-2.07
Juan Hernangomez	10	11	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	7	-11	14.2	14.2	0.01	14.5	14.6	-0.17
Kenneth Faried	48	50	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.05	-8	11	-19	14.1	14.3	-0.13	14.4	14.8	-0.48
Mason Plumlee	26	26	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.06	-13	16	-29	13.7	14.4	-0.63	15.0	14.5	0.48

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	28	26	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.08	6	-9	15	15.3	14.3	0.99	13.8	14.3	-0.52
Willie Reed	32	30	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-7	11	15.0	14.4	0.53	14.0	14.3	-0.32
Luke Babbitt	27	27	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.06	4	-7	11	13.3	15.1	-1.78	14.8	14.0	0.81
Okaro White	19	20	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.18	6	-9	15	15.4	14.4	1.01	14.0	14.2	-0.18
Rodney McGruder	57	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	8	-19	14.4	14.8	-0.38	13.9	14.6	-0.67
Josh Richardson	79	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.34	-1	-2	1	14.2	15.9	-1.67	14.4	13.6	0.79
Goran Dragic	68	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.50	3	-6	9	14.9	14.1	0.76	14.7	13.1	1.57
Tyler Johnson	66	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.26	-7	4	-11	14.6	14.7	-0.08	14.0	14.5	-0.46
James Johnson	60	57	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.20	-12	9	-21	15.0	14.0	0.93	13.8	14.7	-0.91
Hassan Whiteside	69	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.36	-7	4	-11	14.4	15.0	-0.53	14.3	14.0	0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.47,0.47,0.25,0.21,0.06,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 99, BOS 97	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.1,0.17,0	92.7%
GSW 105, VAN 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.41,0.25,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.25,0.16,0.04,0.01,0	92.6%
WAS 120, BOS 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.52,0.47,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.25,0.16,0.01,0,0	92.2%