NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	105		Excitement	7.6 [306]		MVP	Ray Owes (GSW): +21.2%
Vancouver Grizzlies	95		Comeback	1.3 [579]		LVP	Bryant Reeves (VAN): -25.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Owes	0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.08	0.12	-0.00	9	78%	0.23	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Price	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	9	74%	0.09	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
B.J. Armstrong	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	9	47%	0.09	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Chris Mullin	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	13	69%	0.13	5	-0.11	9	89%	0.05
Donyell Marshall	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	83%	0.09	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Bimbo Coles	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	11	40%	-0.05	2	-0.09	8	50%	-0.03
Latrell Sprewell	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.28,-0.33,-0.33,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.16	-0.08	-0.01	20	43%	-0.07	6	-0.16	6	83%	0.00

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Peeler	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.01,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.07	0.02	20	51%	0.10	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Lee Mayberry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.01	4	112%	0.16	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	6	61%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eric Mobley	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Blue Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	11	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Lawrence Moten	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	3	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	21	33%	-0.12	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.06	-0.18	0.01	16	50%	-0.05	4	-0.20	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.0	25.1	14.7	25.0	1.6	28.5	119.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +40.8%

GSW +9.8%

GSW +5.6%

VAN -8.7%

GSW +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	VAN	NBA	GSW	VAN	NBA
this game	14.7	14.6	15.6	107.1	96.0	104.4
season	15.0	16.3		104.4	97.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		109.2	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.9	15.8	13.6	18.4	14.7
VAN	15.2	15.5	12.6	15.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Price	62	62	0.61	-0.10	0.71	0.20	14	-4	18	14.0	15.8	-1.79	14.2	15.1	-0.91
Ray Owes	63	63	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-1	12	14.5	14.9	-0.42	15.4	13.1	2.24
Latrell Sprewell	86	88	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.13	15	-5	20	14.0	19.7	-5.78	14.3	16.5	-2.23
Todd Fuller	82	84	0.53	-0.02	0.55	0.12	14	-4	18	14.1	17.7	-3.60	14.0	17.6	-3.58
Chris Mullin	81	81	0.48	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	2	6	14.9	13.5	1.38	14.7	14.1	0.62
Bimbo Coles	42	43	-0.02	0.53	-0.55	-0.02	0	10	-10	15.2	14.3	0.90	15.1	14.2	0.89
B.J. Armstrong	37	38	-0.10	0.61	-0.71	0.02	-4	14	-18	15.9	13.9	2.04	14.7	14.5	0.28
Donyell Marshall	37	36	-0.12	0.63	-0.75	0.11	-8	18	-26	16.6	13.5	3.09	14.6	14.6	-0.02

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lee Mayberry	43	40	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.09	9	-19	28	15.4	13.9	1.43	16.2	13.6	2.58
Lawrence Moten	28	26	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.02	4	-14	18	14.6	14.5	0.06	14.8	14.6	0.13
Roy Rogers	16	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-9	8	15.7	14.3	1.41	14.1	14.8	-0.72
Eric Mobley	29	28	-0.14	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	-4	-2	16.0	14.0	2.03	13.5	15.1	-1.59
George Lynch	40	38	-0.31	-0.20	-0.12	-0.11	-7	-3	-4	13.8	15.1	-1.20	15.3	14.3	1.05
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	64	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	3	-16	15.1	13.6	1.49	14.6	14.8	-0.14
Blue Edwards	65	65	-0.40	-0.11	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-4	-2	13.7	16.1	-2.41	15.4	13.2	2.29
Bryant Reeves	77	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.26	-5	-5	0	14.6	14.5	0.14	14.2	16.8	-2.69
Anthony Peeler	77	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.34	-6	-4	-2	14.4	15.3	-0.91	14.8	14.3	0.49
Greg Anthony	56	58	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.12	-19	9	-28	13.9	15.4	-1.43	13.6	16.2	-2.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.41,0.25,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.25,0.16,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 120, BOS 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.52,0.47,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.25,0.16,0.01,0,0	93.7%
CHI 103, PHX 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.21,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.24,0.39,0.25,0.17,0.06,0,0	93.0%
NYK 98, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.52,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.26,0.07,0.01,0.04,0	92.9%