NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	124		Excitement	9.6 [91]		MVP	Will Barton (DEN): +69.3%
Houston Rockets	125		Comeback	3.7 [497]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (DEN): -15.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0.69	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.35,0.69	0.20	0.47	-0.02	13	77%	0.71	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.03
Gary Harris	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.16	0.06	0.02	16	74%	0.29	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Juan Hernangomez	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.00	11	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	8	72%	0.17	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Emmanuel Mudiay	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	80%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.12,-0.04	0.03	-0.13	-0.06	14	61%	0.23	5	-0.27	8	100%	0.07
Kenneth Faried	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	6	38%	-0.00	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	9	28%	-0.07	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.06,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.22,0.62	0.62	0.05	0.54	-0.03	29	57%	0.77	6	-0.15	11	82%	0.01
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.11	0.01	9	82%	0.30	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.09	0.01	9	78%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.08	0.01	11	58%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	8	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Dekker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	0.8	28.7	14.7	26.3	2.0	32.2	131.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +58.6%

DEN -36.8%

DEN -11.5%

HOU +36.4%

HOU +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	13.3	13.5	14.8	113.8	117.9	107.7
season	14.4	13.7		111.6	113.2
opponent	14.9	14.5		108.1	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.3	12.6	13.0	14.4	13.3
HOU	11.5	13.6	14.8	14.4	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juan Hernangomez	74	73	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.24	9	-10	19	13.6	12.6	1.06	14.1	12.3	1.78
Emmanuel Mudiay	23	22	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.23	5	-6	11	13.1	13.3	-0.21	13.9	13.4	0.52
Mason Plumlee	52	53	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-2	3	13.2	13.4	-0.23	13.1	13.9	-0.77
Jamal Murray	51	50	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.24	5	-6	11	13.4	13.2	0.15	13.2	13.7	-0.49
Kenneth Faried	26	23	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	6	-13	12.8	13.5	-0.69	11.7	14.0	-2.36
Gary Harris	89	87	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	3	-7	13.2	13.6	-0.44	13.5	13.6	-0.10
Jameer Nelson	71	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.24	-8	7	-15	13.3	13.4	-0.11	13.7	13.1	0.69
Will Barton	69	67	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.59	3	-4	7	13.3	13.3	0.03	13.2	13.9	-0.71
Nikola Jokic	90	86	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.42	-9	8	-17	13.3	13.1	0.23	13.8	12.0	1.79

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Ariza	90	91	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.35	14	-13	27	13.7	12.3	1.40	13.5	12.0	1.55
Clint Capela	59	59	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.20	16	-15	31	14.1	12.7	1.40	13.6	12.9	0.65
Patrick Beverley	70	72	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.49	0	1	-1	14.0	12.4	1.60	13.5	12.9	0.53
Eric Gordon	72	74	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.54	-3	4	-7	13.2	14.2	-1.04	13.4	13.1	0.22
James Harden	87	90	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	-1	3	13.5	13.6	-0.10	13.2	13.6	-0.35
Lou Williams	39	40	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.13	2	-1	3	12.4	14.1	-1.72	13.1	13.4	-0.31
Ryan Anderson	54	55	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.04	3	-2	5	13.8	13.2	0.64	13.1	13.4	-0.30
Nene	47	50	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.27	-15	16	-31	12.7	14.1	-1.40	12.9	13.6	-0.65
Sam Dekker	12	14	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.13	-14	15	-29	13.0	13.6	-0.56	11.9	13.5	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.52,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.65,0.73,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 102, UTA 108	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	92.5%
POR 99, OKC 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.42,0.57,0.71,0.8,0.73,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.93,0.89,0.78,1,1	92.3%
IND 101, DAL 110	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.77,0.69,0.6,0.72,0.86,0.85,0.97,1,1	91.7%