NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	101		Excitement	7.7 [355]		MVP	Maxi Kleber (DAL): +23.6%
Dallas Mavericks	110		Comeback	2.0 [495]		LVP	Devin Harris (DAL): -15.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.08	-0.01	13	67%	0.23	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.04
TJ Leaf	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	4	90%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Myles Turner	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.07	-0.00	10	54%	0.12	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Kyle O'Quinn	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Cory Joseph	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	10	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Darren Collison	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	6	44%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Bojan Bogdanovic	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.04	-0.13	0.03	16	63%	0.09	4	-0.20	3	100%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.08	0.16	0.00	2	150%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.12	0.01	16	57%	0.22	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.09	0.01	10	55%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.14	0.02	0.06	14	73%	0.16	2	-0.07	5	60%	-0.03
Luka Doncic	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	16	67%	0.18	7	-0.13	7	71%	-0.01
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	8	63%	0.08	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04
Justin Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	44%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	4	20%	-0.06	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	7	31%	-0.08	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.6	2.4	20.6	15.4	26.9	1.8	32.3	129.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +27.7%

IND -1.1%

DAL +12.4%

DAL +9.1%

DAL +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DAL	NBA	IND	DAL	NBA
this game	14.6	15.2	14.3	104.1	114.6	109.3
season	14.5	14.7		108.4	108.5
opponent	14.1	14.6		109.7	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.3	15.8	16.2	12.6	14.6
DAL	14.5	14.2	15.8	16.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug McDermott	36	35	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.10	8	-17	25	15.6	14.1	1.46	15.5	15.0	0.48
Aaron Holiday	6	7	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.03	4	-13	17	13.8	14.7	-0.86	15.9	15.2	0.70
TJ Leaf	31	31	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.08	4	-13	17	17.4	13.3	4.09	15.6	15.0	0.65
Kyle O'Quinn	22	22	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.18	0	-9	9	15.3	14.5	0.82	14.2	15.5	-1.33
Wesley Matthews	74	73	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-1	-7	14.3	15.9	-1.61	15.4	14.5	0.90
Cory Joseph	63	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-4	-1	15.6	12.8	2.80	14.3	16.9	-2.55
Thaddeus Young	65	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	1	-11	13.7	16.5	-2.73	15.8	14.1	1.72
Myles Turner	63	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	3	-15	14.0	15.9	-1.96	15.5	14.7	0.73
Darren Collison	54	53	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.05	-14	5	-19	14.5	14.9	-0.40	15.1	15.3	-0.21
Bojan Bogdanovic	71	70	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.19	-12	3	-15	13.9	16.6	-2.65	15.0	15.8	-0.77

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway Jr.	72	73	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.11	19	-10	29	14.8	16.5	-1.72	14.7	14.4	0.35
Dwight Powell	74	77	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.11	16	-7	23	15.4	14.5	0.86	14.3	15.8	-1.53
Jalen Brunson	69	71	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.05	17	-8	25	15.0	15.6	-0.59	14.4	15.3	-0.86
Maxi Kleber	57	55	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.22	8	1	7	14.4	16.4	-2.02	14.3	15.1	-0.89
Justin Jackson	28	27	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	10	-11	14.9	15.3	-0.45	15.9	14.2	1.73
Dorian Finney-Smith	42	38	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.25	-4	13	-17	15.3	15.1	0.18	14.9	14.4	0.51
Luka Doncic	62	64	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.13	0	9	-9	15.4	14.9	0.55	14.3	15.3	-1.01
Dirk Nowitzki	42	45	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	12	-15	16.3	14.4	1.96	15.0	14.3	0.76
Devin Harris	34	35	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.08	-7	16	-23	15.8	14.9	0.95	15.0	14.4	0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.77,0.69,0.6,0.72,0.86,0.85,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 90, SEA 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.7,0.7,0.59,0.67,0.8,0.93,0.96,0.99,1	93.8%
NYK 83, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.75,0.93,0.96,1,1	93.1%
GSW 103, DET 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.85,0.95,1,1	92.8%