NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	103		Excitement	8.3 [199]		MVP	Jon Barry (DET): +16.2%
Detroit Pistons	110		Comeback	3.6 [691]		LVP	Danny Fortson (GSW): -37.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Dampier	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	7	87%	0.16	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Bob Sura	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	11	70%	0.14	2	-0.07	8	75%	-0.02
Troy Murphy	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	11	42%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
Chris Mills	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	8	56%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.06
Gilbert Arenas	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	7	53%	0.02	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.00	-0.06	0.04	14	53%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	7	37%	-0.09	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.05
Danny Fortson	-0.38	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38	-0.22	-0.17	-0.01	15	27%	-0.17	5	-0.21	3	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.07	0.01	5	92%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	13	59%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	17	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	61%	0.05	2	-0.09	6	83%	0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	15	51%	-0.02	1	-0.03	11	82%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.08
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	3	56%	0.01	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Michael Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	16	44%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.5	30.5	15.7	27.2	2.3	35.5	137.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -1.5%

DET +29.2%

DET +3.8%

DET +20.8%

GSW -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DET	NBA	GSW	DET	NBA
this game	14.4	14.8	15.6	105.1	111.1	102.3
season	14.7	15.7		100.7	101.9
opponent	15.8	15.1		99.8	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.3	14.6	14.7	14.0	14.4
DET	13.9	14.2	15.3	16.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Murphy	34	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.13	3	-10	13	14.8	14.2	0.59	15.0	14.7	0.27
Adonal Foyle	48	48	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-4	1	15.0	13.8	1.20	15.8	13.9	1.83
Bob Sura	62	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.35	5	-12	17	13.9	15.3	-1.37	15.4	13.9	1.50
Gilbert Arenas	61	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.02	-8	1	-9	14.9	13.6	1.26	14.1	16.1	-2.04
Antawn Jamison	63	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-2	-3	13.2	16.7	-3.50	14.4	15.6	-1.16
Danny Fortson	56	56	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.09	-9	2	-11	15.1	13.5	1.51	14.7	15.0	-0.22
Chris Mills	42	41	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-4	1	15.2	13.8	1.33	15.4	14.4	1.04
Jason Richardson	77	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.19	-7	0	-7	14.0	15.8	-1.72	14.6	15.7	-1.19
Erick Dampier	47	47	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.29	-8	1	-9	14.4	14.4	-0.05	14.6	15.0	-0.44

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clifford Robinson	81	80	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.32	9	-2	11	15.1	13.4	1.69	14.4	14.5	-0.11
Corliss Williamson	46	45	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	6	-5	16.1	13.7	2.43	14.8	14.1	0.77
Chucky Atkins	69	69	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.18	7	0	7	14.2	16.2	-1.92	13.4	16.9	-3.49
Ben Wallace	79	79	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	0	7	14.7	15.3	-0.59	14.5	14.2	0.31
Jerry Stackhouse	69	69	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	1	5	14.5	15.6	-1.06	14.1	15.1	-1.04
Jon Barry	41	40	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	6	-5	15.0	14.7	0.21	14.6	14.3	0.32
Damon Jones	30	29	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	7	-7	16.2	14.2	1.92	16.9	13.4	3.49
Zeljko Rebraca	28	27	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	7	-7	14.4	15.0	-0.56	14.6	14.4	0.20
Michael Curry	52	52	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	3	1	13.9	15.8	-1.91	14.2	14.7	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.85,0.95,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 101, DAL 110	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.77,0.69,0.6,0.72,0.86,0.85,0.97,1,1	92.8%
NJN 88, LAL 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.38,0.27,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.89,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.6%
CHA 89, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.32,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.96,1	92.5%