NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	90		Excitement	6.4 [581]		MVP	Ray Allen (SEA): +24.5%
Seattle SuperSonics	98		Comeback	2.7 [737]		LVP	Grant Hill (ORL): -14.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	8	55%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tony Battie	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Hunter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	8	75%	0.07	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.03	-0.09	-0.02	20	44%	-0.09	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.05
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.07	0.02	11	52%	-0.00	2	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01
Grant Hill	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	15	40%	-0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25	0.24	0.15	0.13	0.03	21	70%	0.30	2	-0.06	12	100%	0.03
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	4	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.05	0.07	-0.06	13	41%	0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.01	9	55%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	11	36%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	9	39%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	28.2	15.7	26.1	1.7	33.2	133.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +22.1%

SEA +7.2%

SEA +13.9%

SEA +9.9%

ORL -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SEA	NBA	ORL	SEA	NBA
this game	16.3	16.8	15.5	104.7	111.4	104.0
season	14.3	16.5		102.9	109.5
opponent	15.6	15.5		107.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.9	17.8	17.5	14.3	16.3
SEA	17.5	15.8	17.6	16.4	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Hunter	20	19	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-9	10	15.6	16.5	-0.82	15.7	17.1	-1.38
Pat Garrity	12	11	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-9	10	13.2	16.8	-3.62	13.4	17.3	-3.95
Jameer Nelson	50	50	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-12	16	14.8	18.3	-3.44	16.1	17.8	-1.71
Stacey Augmon	16	17	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-7	6	16.7	16.2	0.58	15.0	17.3	-2.25
DeShawn Stevenson	32	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-5	2	17.2	15.7	1.45	18.4	15.9	2.50
Tony Battie	30	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-8	8	15.6	16.6	-1.04	17.3	16.6	0.78
Steve Francis	71	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-5	2	16.1	17.2	-1.12	17.4	14.1	3.32
Kelvin Cato	39	40	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.08	-12	4	-16	18.0	14.9	3.15	18.1	15.8	2.30
Grant Hill	57	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	1	-10	17.0	14.8	2.24	17.2	15.9	1.29
Hedo Turkoglu	46	45	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-1	-6	15.7	16.9	-1.21	15.6	18.1	-2.45
Dwight Howard	57	60	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	3	-14	16.9	15.1	1.83	16.8	16.9	-0.16

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	76	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-2	12	17.1	15.3	1.72	16.9	11.9	4.96
Vitaly Potapenko	29	30	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.24	9	-1	10	16.5	17.0	-0.45	15.1	16.9	-1.76
Ray Allen	77	77	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	-3	14	16.6	18.5	-1.97	16.4	15.3	1.06
Ronald Murray	52	52	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.28	2	6	-4	16.1	17.9	-1.81	15.1	18.1	-2.99
Luke Ridnour	53	48	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	-1	10	17.9	15.2	2.69	17.8	14.4	3.42
Reggie Evans	51	47	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	0	8	17.1	16.4	0.76	16.9	15.5	1.45
Antonio Daniels	47	47	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.32	-6	14	-20	16.0	17.7	-1.71	14.6	18.4	-3.81
Nick Collison	44	42	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	4	0	17.3	16.3	0.95	17.6	15.0	2.57
Robert Swift	11	11	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.04	-7	15	-22	16.1	16.9	-0.83	13.2	16.7	-3.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.7,0.7,0.59,0.67,0.8,0.93,0.96,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 101, DAL 110	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.77,0.69,0.6,0.72,0.86,0.85,0.97,1,1	93.8%
NYK 83, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.75,0.93,0.96,1,1	93.2%
MIN 102, UTA 108	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	92.6%