NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	5.8 [663]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +13.6%
Golden State Warriors	107		Comeback	2.2 [1197]		LVP	Dion Waiters (MIA): -16.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	-0.00	-0.01	17	76%	0.25	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01
Tyler Johnson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.01	0.01	11	69%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Wayne Ellington	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	1	60%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Willie Reed	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Rodney McGruder	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	10%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luke Babbitt	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	14	47%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Goran Dragic	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.05	0.07	16	52%	-0.06	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-0.04	17	24%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.04	0.06	21	60%	0.11	2	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	6	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.00	9	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	57%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Draymond Green	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	11	46%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
James Michael McAdoo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patrick McCaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	0.04	21	51%	0.01	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	32.9	15.6	24.3	2.5	32.3	133.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +33.7%

GSW +9.5%

GSW +4.6%

MIA -1.2%

GSW +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	15.7	12.5	14.8	93.1	104.9	107.7
season	15.4	13.5		106.7	114.9
opponent	15.1	14.5		103.3	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.0	16.2	16.7	16.0	15.7
GSW	12.7	12.6	12.1	12.8	12.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	39	38	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.10	5	-17	22	15.5	15.9	-0.41	13.1	12.2	0.89
Hassan Whiteside	79	78	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.18	5	-17	22	15.6	16.1	-0.48	12.5	12.6	-0.08
Dion Waiters	79	82	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.18	2	-14	16	15.4	16.8	-1.43	12.7	11.8	0.90
Wayne Ellington	16	15	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	-3	-6	16.5	15.6	0.93	10.4	12.9	-2.49
Rodney McGruder	67	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-8	4	15.9	15.3	0.65	12.7	12.2	0.50
Tyler Johnson	63	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-4	-4	15.6	15.9	-0.29	12.5	12.6	-0.11
Willie Reed	23	24	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.04	-17	5	-22	16.1	15.6	0.48	12.6	12.5	0.08
Goran Dragic	81	80	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	2	-16	15.8	15.5	0.30	12.6	12.1	0.49
James Johnson	63	64	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	0.02	-20	8	-28	15.9	15.5	0.41	12.2	13.1	-0.89

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	77	78	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.02	18	-6	24	11.8	14.6	-2.76	15.7	15.7	-0.04
Ian Clark	49	48	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.03	15	-3	18	11.6	13.3	-1.71	15.8	15.6	0.22
Andre Iguodala	58	58	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-1	14	12.6	12.5	0.07	16.6	14.5	2.10
JaVale McGee	22	20	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	1	10	11.6	12.8	-1.18	14.6	16.0	-1.33
Zaza Pachulia	50	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.11	7	5	2	12.6	12.4	0.20	15.9	15.5	0.38
Draymond Green	78	77	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	9	-6	12.4	12.9	-0.52	15.2	17.4	-2.23
Kevin Durant	77	78	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	7	-2	12.3	13.1	-0.74	15.5	16.3	-0.75
Shaun Livingston	34	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	12	-12	14.9	11.3	3.63	17.2	15.0	2.28
David West	24	23	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.04	1	11	-10	14.7	11.8	2.92	16.1	15.6	0.54
James Michael McAdoo	1	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	14	-16	0.0	12.6	-12.64	5.0	15.8	-10.82
Patrick McCaw	40	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.29	-11	23	-34	12.7	12.4	0.38	14.7	16.4	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 90, DAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.96,1	93.2%
DET 96, NYK 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.94,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.9%
IND 86, BOS 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.87,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.86,0.71,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.8%