NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	96		Excitement	5.8 [672]		MVP	Jose Calderon (NYK): +19.3%
New York Knicks	108		Comeback	1.7 [539]		LVP	Andre Drummond (DET): -9.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	-0.00	-0.01	15	63%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Darrun Hilliard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	16	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.01	0.08	4	70%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	17	45%	-0.00	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	15	35%	-0.07	2	-0.03	7	43%	-0.06

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.16	0.04	0.01	6	107%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	8	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.01	0.07	-0.03	24	50%	0.16	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	9	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.12	0.03	0.10	9	67%	0.04	0	0.00	9	78%	-0.02
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	6	71%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Langston Galloway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lance Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Cleanthony Early	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	61%	0.06	3	-0.08	2	50%	0.00
Jerian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	27.5	16.4	26.1	2.5	28.5	125.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +54.3%

NYK +8.2%

DET -12.1%

DET -0.9%

NYK +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	NYK	NBA	DET	NYK	NBA
this game	16.3	16.2	14.9	107.9	122.7	105.1
season	15.0	15.6		104.9	103.5
opponent	14.8	15.1		106.1	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.1	15.2	17.0	16.1	16.3
NYK	16.3	14.8	17.3	16.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrun Hilliard	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-15	18	10.6	16.7	-6.07	18.4	16.1	2.32
Brandon Jennings	33	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	-5	-2	13.7	17.9	-4.13	16.2	16.2	-0.05
Aron Baynes	24	24	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-7	2	14.4	17.0	-2.61	15.0	16.7	-1.73
Ersan Ilyasova	65	64	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	-7	2	16.3	16.4	-0.12	16.6	15.1	1.56
Anthony Tolliver	24	24	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-5	-2	16.4	16.3	0.12	15.1	16.6	-1.56
Marcus Morris	65	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	-5	-2	17.0	14.4	2.61	16.7	15.0	1.73
Andre Drummond	65	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	-5	-2	17.0	14.4	2.61	16.7	15.0	1.73
Reggie Jackson	56	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	-7	2	17.9	13.7	4.13	16.2	16.2	0.05
Stanley Johnson	38	36	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	-3	-6	13.9	18.1	-4.24	15.7	16.6	-0.93
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	70	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.05	-11	-1	-10	17.4	12.4	5.03	15.9	17.5	-1.56

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lance Thomas	55	56	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.05	14	-2	16	16.1	16.4	-0.28	15.0	18.6	-3.58
Carmelo Anthony	66	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	1	10	16.7	14.7	1.98	16.7	14.9	1.84
Langston Galloway	33	34	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.08	10	2	8	15.3	16.8	-1.46	13.7	18.0	-4.29
Derrick Williams	35	34	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	3	6	16.1	16.3	-0.17	16.0	16.5	-0.53
Kyle O'Quinn	24	23	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.07	8	4	4	14.1	17.0	-2.93	14.0	17.1	-3.08
Jose Calderon	58	60	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.00	9	3	6	16.7	15.2	1.54	17.1	14.8	2.32
Robin Lopez	64	65	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.12	4	8	-4	17.0	14.1	2.93	17.3	13.7	3.64
Jerian Grant	15	13	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	10	-8	14.9	16.5	-1.55	14.8	16.6	-1.82
Arron Afflalo	57	57	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.17	-5	17	-22	16.0	16.5	-0.51	17.2	14.8	2.31
Cleanthony Early	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	14	-16	12.5	16.3	-3.80	3.0	16.5	-13.48
Kristaps Porzingis	31	33	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	12	-12	16.6	16.0	0.66	18.6	15.0	3.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.94,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 116, GSW 121	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.57,0.71,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.91,1	95.1%
NJN 86, NYK 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.3%
GSW 85, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.85,0.96,1,1,1	94.1%