NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	116		Excitement	6.6 [506]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +31.5%
Golden State Warriors	121		Comeback	1.6 [697]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (NOK): -14.9%

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	21	65%	0.23	6	-0.17	10	90%	0.03
Jannero Pargo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	-0.00	7	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.03	14	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Linton Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
David West	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0	0.06	-0.05	0.01	10	75%	0.18	5	-0.18	8	62%	-0.03
Desmond Mason	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	11	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Simmons	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	0.02	9	43%	-0.05	3	-0.10	10	60%	-0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.32	0.32	0.27	0.06	0.01	17	71%	0.32	0	0.00	17	76%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.08	-0.04	13	60%	0.23	2	-0.04	9	78%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	13	67%	0.18	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.02	12	75%	0.15	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	11	52%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Anthony Roberson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.6	28.2	15.7	30.6	2.6	39.2	143.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +40.1%

GSW +9.3%

NOK -26.1%

GSW +29.5%

NOK -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOK	GSW	NBA	NOK	GSW	NBA
this game	15.4	14.9	15.4	122.1	127.4	104.5
season	16.0	13.5		102.8	105.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		105.7	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOK	13.8	17.2	15.7	15.3	15.4
GSW	13.4	13.4	15.6	17.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David West	63	66	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.32	10	-15	25	14.6	17.1	-2.49	14.7	15.3	-0.58
Cedric Simmons	23	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-5	5	15.0	15.6	-0.58	15.5	14.7	0.82
Peja Stojakovic	66	68	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.33	6	-11	17	14.9	16.7	-1.75	15.3	13.8	1.53
Jannero Pargo	20	18	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.00	-8	3	-11	18.8	14.5	4.32	15.3	14.8	0.57
Chris Paul	75	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.35	3	-8	11	14.5	18.8	-4.32	14.8	15.3	-0.57
Desmond Mason	64	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-5	5	15.6	15.1	0.51	14.5	15.6	-1.04
Rasual Butler	23	22	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	4	-13	15.3	15.5	-0.24	15.5	14.7	0.82
Tyson Chandler	62	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.16	-6	1	-7	16.8	12.9	3.83	14.8	14.9	-0.10
Linton Johnson	26	24	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	7	-19	16.8	14.9	1.93	13.9	15.2	-1.34
Bobby Jackson	53	53	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.22	-9	4	-13	14.9	16.1	-1.17	14.9	14.8	0.12

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	87	87	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.34	11	-6	17	14.7	16.7	-2.05	15.7	13.1	2.53
Andris Biedrins	32	33	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.09	11	-6	17	15.8	14.4	1.46	18.1	14.0	4.01
Mickael Pietrus	82	81	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	6	-7	15.0	13.8	1.28	14.4	21.4	-6.94
Troy Murphy	74	74	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.40	-4	9	-13	15.3	13.3	1.98	15.1	16.8	-1.76
Monta Ellis	73	73	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.41	-5	10	-15	16.5	9.5	7.05	15.3	15.8	-0.49
Matt Barnes	38	38	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.05	7	-2	9	10.9	17.5	-6.63	15.9	15.2	0.71
Mike Dunleavy	64	63	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	1	3	15.0	14.5	0.53	14.9	16.5	-1.64
Anthony Roberson	25	26	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	3	-1	13.2	15.5	-2.27	16.7	15.0	1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.57,0.71,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 96, NYK 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.94,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%
UTA 100, CLE 109	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.61,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.99,0.98,1	93.8%
SAC 100, DAL 110	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.9,0.81,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1,1	93.7%