NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	83		Excitement	4.7 [888]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +14.2%
Toronto Raptors	90		Comeback	1.6 [1020]		LVP	Michael Carter-Williams (MIL): -14.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.14	0.01	0.04	15	68%	0.15	1	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Rashad Vaughn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	1	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	9	65%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
John Henson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	12	58%	0.03	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Jabari Parker	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	12	38%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	13	35%	-0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Johnny O'Bryant	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	7	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.02	-0.01	17	59%	0.14	0	0.00	12	92%	0.03
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	0.00	6	65%	0.14	2	-0.06	8	50%	-0.04
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	4	70%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	7	50%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	3	57%	0.03	4	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.03	16	37%	-0.03	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	30.2	15.4	25.6	2.7	30.0	130.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +46.5%

MIL -0.7%

TOR +1.4%

TOR +0.7%

TOR +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.4	16.1	14.9	91.2	97.8	105.1
season	14.8	16.1		102.8	107.2
opponent	14.8	15.3		104.6	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.9	16.7	14.4	15.6	15.4
TOR	16.4	14.7	15.6	17.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashad Vaughn	9	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-4	1	19.1	15.0	4.15	14.1	16.3	-2.24
Johnny O'Bryant	27	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-1	-5	17.2	14.6	2.63	15.2	16.5	-1.24
O.J. Mayo	67	66	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-10	13	14.6	17.6	-3.06	16.8	14.3	2.50
Jabari Parker	49	49	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.08	-5	-2	-3	14.4	16.5	-2.14	15.8	16.4	-0.65
John Henson	25	27	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-3	-1	17.2	14.7	2.57	17.9	15.4	2.54
Greg Monroe	66	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-4	1	14.7	17.2	-2.57	15.4	17.9	-2.54
Michael Carter-Williams	48	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.14	-8	1	-9	16.6	14.0	2.69	16.7	15.4	1.23
Khris Middleton	82	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.32	-4	-3	-1	15.0	19.1	-4.15	16.3	14.1	2.24
Giannis Antetokounmpo	82	84	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.35	-5	-2	-3	15.3	16.3	-1.07	15.7	20.6	-4.96

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Joseph	59	58	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.11	15	-8	23	16.2	15.8	0.39	16.5	13.3	3.20
Patrick Patterson	59	59	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-8	23	16.1	16.2	-0.13	16.6	13.0	3.61
Bismack Biyombo	66	65	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.18	11	-4	15	16.5	15.0	1.48	14.1	18.5	-4.38
Terrence Ross	63	62	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.12	8	-1	9	14.9	18.7	-3.73	15.2	15.8	-0.57
DeMar DeRozan	66	66	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.30	-2	9	-11	16.8	14.3	2.44	14.8	16.8	-2.02
Kyle Lowry	68	68	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.23	0	7	-7	16.5	14.9	1.65	14.6	17.7	-3.05
James Johnson	20	19	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	7	-7	15.6	16.2	-0.57	17.1	14.9	2.19
Luis Scola	59	58	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.32	-12	19	-31	15.7	16.8	-1.17	15.5	15.2	0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.78,0.9,0.96,0.99,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 85, SAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.2%
POR 77, UTA 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.69,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.9,0.98,1,1	94.5%
CLE 123, MIN 131	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.81,0.95,0.92,0.98,1	94.4%