NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	4.2 [985]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +21.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	115		Comeback	1.2 [1211]		LVP	Greivis Vasquez (MIL): -12.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.29	0.02	0.09	15	87%	0.22	0	0.00	8	100%	0.02
Khris Middleton	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	10	56%	0.09	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.03
Jerryd Bayless	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	56%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Parker	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	10	64%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny O'Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	11	37%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0.05	14	49%	-0.02	2	-0.04	7	43%	-0.02
Greivis Vasquez	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.03	-0.02	13	77%	0.22	4	-0.05	9	89%	0.02
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.00	4	90%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	5	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.14	0.00	0.07	12	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	71%	0.07	2	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	15	63%	0.13	4	-0.09	5	100%	0.02
Jared Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	2	70%	0.07	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	6	47%	0.02	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.4	37.5	17.8	26.2	2.8	35.3	147.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +34.6%

MIL -0.3%

CLE +19.7%

MIL -7.5%

CLE +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CLE	NBA	MIL	CLE	NBA
this game	15.9	17.0	14.9	114.9	130.7	105.1
season	14.8	15.8		102.8	110.3
opponent	14.9	15.3		103.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.5	15.3	16.9	14.1	15.9
CLE	15.2	15.3	19.1	18.6	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny O'Bryant	9	10	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.05	3	-18	21	15.4	16.0	-0.56	19.6	16.6	2.97
Khris Middleton	58	59	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.26	6	-21	27	16.6	14.6	2.03	16.3	18.4	-2.11
Greg Monroe	61	62	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-12	9	16.5	14.5	2.00	16.6	17.8	-1.14
Michael Carter-Williams	47	49	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-9	3	16.7	15.0	1.74	16.8	17.2	-0.38
Jerryd Bayless	46	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.11	-13	-2	-11	14.9	17.1	-2.23	17.5	16.4	1.08
Jabari Parker	58	57	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	-4	-7	16.5	14.8	1.67	15.7	19.3	-3.54
John Henson	19	19	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.07	-15	0	-15	14.5	16.4	-1.88	19.1	16.4	2.66
Greivis Vasquez	40	39	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.11	-9	-6	-3	15.0	16.7	-1.74	17.2	16.8	0.38
O.J. Mayo	26	26	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.01	-13	-2	-11	14.6	16.5	-1.89	17.8	16.6	1.19
Giannis Antetokounmpo	71	72	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.10	-14	-1	-13	16.0	15.5	0.54	17.3	15.6	1.64

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	73	73	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.07	15	0	15	16.9	17.3	-0.44	15.7	17.1	-1.35
Kevin Love	63	62	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.02	15	0	15	17.6	15.3	2.30	15.8	16.3	-0.47
Matthew Dellavedova	70	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	-1	17	17.4	15.2	2.19	15.6	17.4	-1.83
LeBron James	65	64	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.02	13	2	11	16.6	18.0	-1.46	16.3	15.0	1.22
Timofey Mozgov	20	21	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.07	12	3	9	14.9	17.6	-2.67	18.0	15.3	2.71
Richard Jefferson	30	29	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	10	-5	17.8	16.5	1.27	14.6	16.6	-1.98
Anderson Varejao	19	21	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	14	-13	18.6	16.5	2.06	15.9	16.0	-0.05
Tristan Thompson	49	45	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	13	-11	17.2	16.7	0.49	15.0	17.0	-1.95
Jared Cunningham	31	30	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	18	-21	15.7	17.6	-1.89	17.5	15.1	2.38
James Jones	20	20	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	16	-17	15.5	17.4	-1.90	16.9	15.6	1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.8,0.84,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, CLE 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.9,0.89,0.84,0.78,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.84,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	95.5%
WAS 80, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.96,1	95.1%
ORL 76, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.92,0.82,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%