inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Orlando Magic 76 Excitement4.1 [960] MVPTim Hardaway (MIA): +12.6%
Miami Heat 96 Comeback1.1 [971] LVPRony Seikaly (ORL): -13.7%


Orlando Magic
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Dennis Scott0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.060.000.041460%0.051-0.022100%0.00
Derek Strong0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.020.010.011050%0.0200.0000%0.00
David Vaughn0.0000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Brian Shaw-0.020,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.01-0.01-0.00960%0.043-0.062100%0.00
Kenny Smith-0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.01-0.000.010100%0.001-0.022100%0.00
Gerald Wilkins-0.060,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.12-0.01-0.071339%-0.033-0.04560%-0.02
Darrell Armstrong-0.080,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08-0.08-0.01-0.01625%-0.022-0.0600%0.00
Horace Grant-0.110,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11-0.07-0.020.011136%-0.052-0.0500%0.00
Rony Seikaly-0.140,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14-0.14-0.02-0.021631%-0.111-0.02425%-0.04

Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Tim Hardaway0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.130.130.130.010.011474%0.151-0.026100%0.03
Ike Austin0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.110.110.100.020.011171%0.1100.00250%-0.00
Voshon Lenard0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.090.090.100.000.01882%0.091-0.001100%0.00
Gary Grant00.000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Mark Strickland0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.00-0.020.00-0.0210%0.0000.0000%0.00
Martin Muursepp0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.000.040.000.042100%0.0000.0000%0.00
James Scott0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.00-0.030.00-0.0320%-0.0000.0000%0.00
Kurt Thomas0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.00-0.020.00-0.01250%0.001-0.0000%0.00
Sasha Danilovic0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.03-0.060.03-0.001743%-0.002-0.021100%0.01
P.J. Brown0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.03-0.030.00-0.00650%0.012-0.0400%0.00
Keith Askins0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.03-0.050.00-0.0220%-0.011-0.0200%0.00
Alonzo Mourning0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11-0.11-0.12-0.01-0.031150%0.006-0.11475%0.00
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game23.32.630.215.823.43.227.6126.3
league avg32.72.123.215.325.72.133.1135.6
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
MIA +34.9%
MIA +13.2%
ORL -5.9%
MIA +6.5%
MIA +1.3%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsORLMIANBAORLMIANBA
this game18.915.215.690.5112.9104.4
season16.415.8102.9103.1
opponent16.315.598.3103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
ORL18.820.716.719.618.9
MIA15.517.216.012.515.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
David Vaughn330.00-0.500.500.000-202020.318.91.486.315.5-9.19
Kenny Smith1414-0.01-0.490.480.05-2-181618.718.9-0.2314.315.4-1.09
Horace Grant6261-0.21-0.290.080.03-8-12417.821.9-4.0715.314.80.51
Dennis Scott7374-0.30-0.20-0.09-0.09-7-13618.223.7-5.5515.513.42.11
Brian Shaw6464-0.33-0.17-0.170.02-12-8-419.218.11.0616.112.33.81
Rony Seikaly6668-0.34-0.16-0.18-0.05-10-10018.719.7-1.0416.510.26.28
Gerald Wilkins7375-0.41-0.09-0.330.09-17-3-1418.323.0-4.7114.719.0-4.31
Darrell Armstrong2828-0.45-0.05-0.400.20-222-2421.917.44.5414.115.7-1.58
Derek Strong3738-0.45-0.05-0.400.20-222-2421.017.33.7013.416.6-3.22

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Tim Hardaway71700.51-0.010.51-0.082002015.215.10.0718.620.4-1.74
Voshon Lenard53520.490.010.48-0.1622-22414.216.9-2.7919.817.42.42
Sasha Danilovic74740.380.120.27-0.111731415.513.52.0018.621.4-2.83
Ike Austin39390.360.140.23-0.171821614.316.0-1.7420.817.23.62
P.J. Brown47450.290.210.080.11614-816.214.02.2218.119.8-1.76
Kurt Thomas23220.220.28-0.060.05614-814.715.4-0.7521.218.13.09
Alonzo Mourning56570.130.37-0.25-0.171010015.614.41.1917.422.1-4.67
Gary Grant880.070.43-0.350.02218-1620.414.75.7127.118.09.09
Keith Askins34340.050.45-0.410.08-121-2216.714.22.5617.220.0-2.80
James Scott1090.000.50-0.500.00020-2011.415.7-4.3118.019.0-1.01
Mark Strickland550.000.50-0.500.00020-2011.215.4-4.2518.218.9-0.75
Martin Muursepp550.000.50-0.500.00020-2011.215.4-4.2518.218.9-0.75


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.92,0.82,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
GameSimilarity Score
BOS 76, IND 990.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.82,0.84,0.78,0.7,0.79,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,195.2%
LAL 89, UTA 1010.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,195.2%
SAC 132, GSW 1400.5,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,195.1%