NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	132		Excitement	5.6 [674]		MVP	Francisco Garcia (SAC): +15.5%
Golden State Warriors	140		Comeback	1.0 [1256]		LVP	Spencer Hawes (SAC): -12.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.21	0.02	0.08	18	69%	0.15	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.16	0.00	0.03	12	71%	0.14	1	-0.01	17	82%	0.02
John Salmons	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	0.00	0.02	15	65%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Quincy Douby	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.14	0.01	0.08	6	94%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0.00	9	56%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	9	40%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Spencer Hawes	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.01	13	43%	-0.03	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.02	0.03	18	69%	0.17	5	-0.07	12	92%	0.04
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	13	57%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	12	57%	0.08	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	12	61%	0.13	4	-0.07	9	89%	0.01
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	5	56%	0.03	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	12	55%	0.07	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	5	71%	0.02	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	70%	0.03	2	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick O'Bryant	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	34.2	15.6	25.3	2.5	41.5	147.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +23.3%

GSW +3.7%

GSW +17.1%

GSW +10.8%

SAC -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	GSW	NBA	SAC	GSW	NBA
this game	13.9	12.7	15.4	123.4	127.3	105.7
season	14.9	13.5		105.6	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.0		107.9	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.4	14.3	14.6	12.4	13.9
GSW	10.0	12.4	14.8	13.9	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quincy Douby	40	40	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.27	8	-16	24	13.4	14.2	-0.85	12.3	12.8	-0.52
Anthony Johnson	33	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.06	-7	-1	-6	14.8	13.5	1.36	10.6	13.6	-2.95
Mikki Moore	48	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-4	0	14.2	13.6	0.59	14.2	11.4	2.76
Spencer Hawes	80	83	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-9	10	13.5	15.2	-1.76	12.6	12.8	-0.16
John Salmons	75	77	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.17	-3	-5	2	13.0	16.0	-2.99	12.7	12.6	0.03
Beno Udrih	48	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-2	-4	14.9	13.1	1.76	14.2	11.5	2.76
Francisco Garcia	76	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-7	6	13.9	13.9	-0.04	12.5	13.1	-0.66
Kevin Martin	81	85	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.13	-12	4	-16	13.5	15.3	-1.80	12.9	11.7	1.26
Shelden Williams	54	53	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.02	-16	8	-24	15.1	12.6	2.51	11.2	14.0	-2.72

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	94	90	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.19	9	-1	10	13.3	9.1	4.20	14.2	12.2	1.99
Andris Biedrins	76	73	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	-2	12	13.4	11.0	2.35	14.7	12.1	2.58
Monta Ellis	78	75	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	-3	14	12.4	13.2	-0.84	14.3	12.9	1.47
Al Harrington	72	70	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.01	9	-1	10	12.8	12.4	0.36	14.5	12.9	1.59
Austin Croshere	29	30	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.17	3	5	-2	11.1	13.2	-2.06	13.3	14.2	-0.89
Mickael Pietrus	30	30	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	7	-6	13.0	12.5	0.52	12.5	14.4	-1.91
Stephen Jackson	93	88	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.25	-2	10	-12	12.3	14.4	-2.01	13.6	15.3	-1.71
CJ Watson	41	42	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.28	-3	11	-14	12.5	12.7	-0.19	14.0	13.8	0.15
Kelenna Azubuike	18	17	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.05	6	2	4	12.3	12.7	-0.38	12.6	14.1	-1.50
Brandan Wright	13	14	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	6	-4	13.4	12.6	0.83	13.2	14.0	-0.80
Patrick O'Bryant	5	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	11	-14	7.0	12.9	-5.92	6.3	14.4	-8.02
Matt Barnes	1	0	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	11	-14	1.0	12.8	-11.76	0.0	13.9	-13.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 80, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
NYK 100, BOS 128	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.87,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
PHI 99, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.9,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1	95.3%