NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	80		Excitement	4.5 [946]		MVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): +17.6%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	1.1 [1164]		LVP	Emeka Okafor (CHA): -11.5%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	8	78%	0.08	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Melvin Ely	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	11	56%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Malik Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cory Alexander	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	5	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	16	41%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Gerald Wallace	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.02	-0.05	7	35%	-0.02	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Matt Carroll	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	11	39%	-0.05	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Emeka Okafor	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.03	6	44%	-0.02	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.21	0.03	0.06	14	89%	0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	5	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	52%	0.00	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	2	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	6	46%	0.00	3	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	13	47%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	7	13%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	8	45%	-0.04	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	2.7	29.2	17.5	25.7	2.0	25.9	132.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.9%

MIA +0.1%

MIA +15.3%

MIA +11.4%

CHA -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	16.2	15.5	84.2	105.3	104.0
season	15.5	15.7		99.0	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.1		101.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.3	13.3	13.8	14.7	14.3
MIA	17.4	16.0	16.2	15.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kapono	56	56	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-17	15	13.2	15.7	-2.53	16.5	15.8	0.70
Cory Alexander	38	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.03	-8	-11	3	13.4	14.8	-1.43	17.0	15.7	1.33
Melvin Ely	46	46	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	-9	-1	16.2	12.4	3.85	17.0	15.5	1.54
Jason Hart	60	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	-11	3	14.4	14.1	0.31	15.5	17.5	-1.95
Emeka Okafor	63	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.16	-16	-3	-13	13.5	15.7	-2.16	16.2	16.2	-0.02
Malik Allen	49	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-9	-1	13.5	15.0	-1.49	16.0	16.4	-0.42
Gerald Wallace	40	41	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.18	-17	-2	-15	15.8	13.1	2.63	15.7	16.6	-0.89
Keith Bogans	69	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	-8	-3	14.8	12.7	2.10	16.1	16.7	-0.64
Matt Carroll	54	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	-6	-7	13.8	14.9	-1.14	16.3	16.2	0.12

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	53	53	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	7	5	16.8	15.5	1.32	14.7	13.7	1.01
Eddie Jones	46	46	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	8	3	16.1	16.3	-0.20	14.3	14.2	0.06
Udonis Haslem	49	51	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.07	8	11	-3	17.0	15.4	1.69	14.8	13.6	1.15
Dwyane Wade	43	44	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	12	-5	15.9	16.5	-0.65	15.1	13.5	1.52
Rasual Butler	55	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.07	10	9	1	16.6	15.7	0.84	13.6	15.3	-1.70
Michael Doleac	31	33	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.10	11	8	3	16.8	16.0	0.81	12.7	15.1	-2.34
Alonzo Mourning	39	37	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.05	5	14	-9	15.8	16.5	-0.75	14.6	14.0	0.65
Steven Smith	37	35	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.10	10	9	1	17.1	15.7	1.40	15.2	13.7	1.45
Christian Laettner	38	39	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.16	11	8	3	15.9	16.5	-0.61	13.8	14.6	-0.78
Keyon Dooling	41	42	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.10	7	12	-5	15.5	16.8	-1.32	13.7	14.7	-1.01
Shandon Anderson	30	30	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	18	-17	15.5	16.6	-1.03	15.1	13.8	1.29
Dorell Wright	8	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	17	-15	11.9	16.6	-4.76	10.9	14.6	-3.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 91, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,1,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	96.0%
UTA 85, CHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,1	95.9%
PHX 114, GSW 129	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%