NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	8.1 [231]		MVP	Tobias Harris (ORL): +36.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	90		Comeback	3.3 [110]		LVP	Willie Green (ORL): -18.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.37	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.01	15	70%	0.43	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.08	0.13	-0.00	6	83%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.07	0.02	17	57%	0.18	3	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01
Victor Oladipo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.18,0.01,0.04	-0.09	0.12	-0.00	19	37%	0.10	2	-0.06	3	67%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	3	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew Nicholson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.14	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	11	43%	0.01	3	-0.15	1	100%	0.01
Willie Green	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.01	-0.17	0.01	10	43%	-0.11	1	-0.08	3	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.00	7	43%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.02	13	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.09
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.01	4	87%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.04	0.01	10	67%	0.08	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.03
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.16	0.11	-0.02	14	29%	0.10	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	16	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.04
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	4	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	12	31%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	-0.00	9	53%	-0.04	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.7	24.6	15.4	24.2	1.7	32.2	128.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +49.8%

ORL +13.4%

ORL +6.6%

MIL -4.5%

MIL -15.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.4	15.1	107.8	101.1	104.2
season	14.9	14.5		100.4	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.3		101.0	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.8	15.7	19.0	17.8	16.8
MIL	15.2	17.0	13.2	16.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	54	52	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.29	13	-6	19	16.7	16.9	-0.22	16.4	14.0	2.42
Elfrid Payton	75	75	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	-3	13	16.9	16.3	0.59	15.2	16.4	-1.20
Tobias Harris	76	77	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.33	5	2	3	16.6	17.4	-0.71	15.4	15.7	-0.29
Nikola Vucevic	64	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	3	1	16.7	16.9	-0.24	14.7	17.1	-2.40
Victor Oladipo	70	69	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	7	-7	16.9	16.1	0.78	14.7	17.9	-3.20
Willie Green	45	44	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.09	15	-8	23	16.2	17.4	-1.20	16.7	14.2	2.50
Andrew Nicholson	26	26	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	2	3	18.0	16.2	1.80	17.5	14.6	2.89
Dewayne Dedmon	40	39	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	0.14	-17	24	-41	16.5	16.9	-0.37	14.1	16.4	-2.29

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Carter-Williams	65	65	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.29	7	-14	21	15.0	16.5	-1.54	16.4	17.6	-1.11
Khris Middleton	64	65	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.30	5	-12	17	14.9	16.7	-1.81	16.6	17.0	-0.39
Zaza Pachulia	44	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.41	9	-16	25	14.1	16.7	-2.67	17.2	16.3	0.94
O.J. Mayo	57	58	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-4	1	15.2	15.8	-0.62	17.5	15.4	2.05
Jared Dudley	40	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.16	-14	7	-21	16.2	14.8	1.42	15.6	17.7	-2.06
Ersan Ilyasova	50	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.44	6	-13	19	14.6	16.5	-1.86	17.6	15.7	1.92
John Henson	45	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.12	-16	9	-25	16.7	14.1	2.67	16.3	17.2	-0.94
Jerryd Bayless	29	29	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.04	-11	4	-15	16.5	14.9	1.58	16.2	17.0	-0.81
Giannis Antetokounmpo	51	51	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.20	-18	11	-29	16.4	14.1	2.33	16.8	16.6	0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.63,0.22,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 116, IND 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.79,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.4,0.55,0.54,0.15,0.05,0	92.1%
WAS 81, NJN 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.6,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.47,0.67,0.69,0.55,0.25,0.17,0	92.0%
CHI 94, BOS 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.57,0.57,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.16,0.04,0	91.3%