NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	100		Excitement	4.9 [833]		MVP	Gerald Henderson (CHA): +18.4%
Charlotte Hornets	115		Comeback	1.6 [428]		LVP	Thabo Sefolosha (ATL): -7.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kent Bazemore	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	-0.02	14	62%	0.09	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
John Jenkins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	12	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Dennis Schroder	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	12	61%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Austin Daye	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	7	64%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.03	13	64%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Pero Antic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Shelvin Mack	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	10	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.02	-0.04	7	21%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.18	0.04	0.03	10	100%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
PJ Hairston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.01	0.00	4	120%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.02	-0.03	14	57%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	9	90%	0.13	4	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.03	6	60%	0.08	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	19	47%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	86%	-0.00
Jeff Taylor	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	56%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	42%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Roberts	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	27.2	15.7	24.6	1.0	32.3	125.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +35.2%

CHA +8.1%

ATL -7.4%

CHA +11.4%

CHA +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHA	NBA	ATL	CHA	NBA
this game	15.5	15.7	15.1	107.5	125.0	104.2
season	14.9	15.6		106.7	98.9
opponent	15.1	15.4		102.6	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.6	17.3	14.5	13.8	15.5
CHA	16.1	15.5	14.9	16.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	45	44	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-16	17	15.6	15.3	0.27	15.9	15.5	0.45
Mike Muscala	64	64	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.35	10	-25	35	15.6	15.1	0.47	16.7	13.4	3.23
Austin Daye	33	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-13	11	13.5	16.5	-2.97	15.3	15.9	-0.56
Pero Antic	38	38	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	-7	-1	16.2	14.9	1.31	15.7	15.6	0.11
Kent Bazemore	66	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	-8	1	14.7	17.2	-2.48	15.8	15.3	0.51
Shelvin Mack	50	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	-3	-9	14.5	16.6	-2.04	16.1	15.1	1.00
Dennis Schroder	49	48	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.02	-13	-2	-11	16.3	14.6	1.70	15.0	16.5	-1.50
John Jenkins	64	63	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.04	-19	4	-23	16.1	14.1	2.02	15.4	16.2	-0.83
Elton Brand	56	54	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	0.14	-25	10	-35	16.1	14.6	1.49	14.8	16.9	-2.04

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	68	70	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.07	21	-6	27	15.7	15.7	0.01	15.8	14.4	1.42
Gerald Henderson	54	57	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.03	16	-1	17	16.4	14.7	1.69	15.7	15.1	0.53
Bismack Biyombo	61	62	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	5	5	15.8	15.4	0.38	14.2	18.1	-3.90
Kemba Walker	64	65	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	2	11	15.7	15.6	0.10	15.9	14.4	1.58
Jeff Taylor	51	50	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	5	5	14.9	16.7	-1.78	17.0	13.7	3.28
Mo Williams	44	45	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	8	-1	16.0	15.3	0.71	14.0	16.9	-2.92
PJ Hairston	40	40	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	14	-13	15.6	15.7	-0.18	14.2	16.4	-2.26
Al Jefferson	31	31	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	10	-5	15.4	15.8	-0.38	18.1	14.2	3.90
Brian Roberts	7	6	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	15	-15	13.4	15.9	-2.43	19.0	15.2	3.78
Lance Stephenson	16	16	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	15.9	15.6	0.32	14.2	15.7	-1.54
Jason Maxiell	24	23	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.13	-6	21	-27	15.7	15.7	-0.01	14.4	15.8	-1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.63,0.58,0.67,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.94,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.86,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	95.2%
UTA 92, MEM 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.6,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.93,0.99,0.98,1,1	94.5%
DET 78, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.86,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.93,0.99,1,1	94.4%