NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	78		Excitement	4.6 [895]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): +20.2%
Toronto Raptors	87		Comeback	1.3 [1012]		LVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): -11.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corliss Williamson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	9	65%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	-0.00	0.04	11	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	12	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Darko Milicic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tremaine Fowlkes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	7	43%	-0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	11	27%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	5	45%	-0.04	2	-0.05	10	70%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	7	12%	-0.09	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.18	0.04	0.02	17	75%	0.22	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.01	15	59%	0.11	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.02	-0.04	11	50%	0.07	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.15	-0.02	-0.08	11	37%	-0.02	4	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	8	32%	-0.06	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	2.4	26.5	15.5	25.9	1.8	33.0	126.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +51.1%

TOR +3.9%

TOR +4.2%

DET -11.4%

TOR +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	15.5	16.1	15.7	85.7	95.6	100.5
season	16.2	16.8		99.2	94.8
opponent	15.7	16.0		98.4	92.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.0	15.9	17.3	15.2	15.5
TOR	14.8	17.6	15.4	16.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tremaine Fowlkes	8	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-9	9	12.5	15.8	-3.34	18.4	15.9	2.52
Darvin Ham	31	32	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-9	9	16.0	15.3	0.68	16.8	15.7	1.05
Darko Milicic	17	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-9	9	14.1	15.9	-1.83	17.2	15.8	1.40
Elden Campbell	34	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-5	1	15.1	15.8	-0.74	15.3	16.6	-1.28
Corliss Williamson	43	42	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-6	3	16.5	14.7	1.74	16.4	15.9	0.52
Mehmet Okur	38	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-5	1	15.7	15.4	0.32	17.1	15.4	1.68
Mike James	63	63	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-8	7	15.6	15.5	0.07	16.8	14.6	2.15
Ben Wallace	50	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	-2	-5	15.4	15.7	-0.24	15.3	17.1	-1.86
Tayshaun Prince	63	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	-3	-3	15.9	14.9	1.00	15.9	16.5	-0.63
Lindsey Hunter	53	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	-3	-3	15.3	15.9	-0.59	15.6	16.8	-1.22
Richard Hamilton	55	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	5	-19	15.6	15.5	0.13	15.3	17.2	-1.86

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	80	80	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.20	12	-3	15	16.0	16.6	-0.61	15.6	15.3	0.31
Jalen Rose	79	78	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-3	15	16.2	15.5	0.69	15.1	18.5	-3.49
Morris Peterson	71	70	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.14	10	-1	11	16.1	16.2	-0.19	15.3	16.3	-1.02
Donyell Marshall	78	77	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.18	7	2	5	16.1	16.0	0.12	15.1	17.9	-2.81
Vince Carter	69	71	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.14	7	2	5	15.6	17.8	-2.27	16.0	13.9	2.11
Michael Curry	28	29	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.20	-3	12	-15	17.1	15.6	1.51	16.3	15.2	1.17
Roger Mason Jr.	26	25	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	8	-7	16.3	16.0	0.24	15.5	15.6	-0.04
Corie Blount	24	25	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	10	-11	16.3	16.0	0.26	16.8	15.1	1.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.86,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 91, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%
BOS 111, GSW 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.73,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,1,1	95.2%
POR 89, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.86,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%