NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	124		Excitement	3.9 [1031]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +34.0%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	1.0 [1098]		LVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): -11.3%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.26	0.01	-0.07	19	82%	0.35	4	-0.01	11	64%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.02	0.04	14	65%	0.13	1	-0.02	12	75%	0.00
Andre Roberson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.00	0.02	6	100%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	6	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitch McGary	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	12	57%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.15	-0.00	-0.07	8	12%	-0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.08	0.11	0.00	14	61%	0.19	1	-0.00	8	75%	0.05
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.14	0.01	0.04	15	68%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.16	-0.00	0.14	12	85%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	10	62%	0.05	4	-0.05	6	67%	-0.00
Gary Harris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	10	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	6	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.02	9	29%	-0.09	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.5	33.8	15.7	33.4	2.3	30.6	142.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +40.5%

DEN -1.9%

OKC +6.4%

OKC +6.0%

DEN -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.3	14.7	15.1	125.3	115.2	104.2
season	14.5	14.6		105.7	103.4
opponent	15.3	15.0		106.6	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.0	14.5	12.7	17.5	14.3
DEN	15.8	13.2	15.0	15.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.04	18	-8	26	13.9	15.8	-1.84	14.6	15.3	-0.73
Russell Westbrook	70	68	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.05	11	-1	12	13.9	15.4	-1.51	14.2	16.0	-1.87
Andre Roberson	51	51	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.01	10	0	10	14.2	14.5	-0.34	14.3	15.2	-0.94
Serge Ibaka	50	50	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	0	10	15.0	13.6	1.41	14.3	15.2	-0.86
Kendrick Perkins	45	44	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	-2	14	13.0	15.4	-2.42	14.5	15.0	-0.49
Nick Collison	56	56	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	6	-2	13.3	15.7	-2.31	14.9	14.6	0.33
Dion Waiters	36	37	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	2	6	14.2	14.4	-0.23	15.7	14.2	1.53
Mitch McGary	47	48	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.29	-6	16	-22	16.1	12.8	3.28	15.3	14.3	1.02
Reggie Jackson	37	39	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.31	-9	19	-28	15.4	13.7	1.65	15.6	14.2	1.43
Anthony Morrow	26	26	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.27	-8	18	-26	15.8	13.8	1.99	15.0	14.7	0.34

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	2	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	15.0	14.7	0.26	22.0	14.3	7.73
Erick Green	2	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	15.0	14.7	0.26	22.0	14.3	7.73
Randy Foye	49	50	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.41	11	-21	32	15.0	14.5	0.42	15.7	13.0	2.74
Danilo Gallinari	30	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	-7	4	15.2	14.5	0.70	15.0	14.1	0.85
Darrell Arthur	37	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.01	-6	-4	-2	15.4	14.4	0.96	13.9	14.6	-0.61
JJ Hickson	27	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.18	-15	5	-20	15.5	14.5	1.01	13.6	14.6	-1.05
Kenneth Faried	67	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-10	10	14.3	15.7	-1.48	14.4	14.1	0.30
Jusuf Nurkic	67	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-11	12	14.6	15.1	-0.47	14.7	13.4	1.31
Wilson Chandler	72	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-4	-2	14.8	14.7	0.11	14.3	14.5	-0.26
Ty Lawson	79	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-4	-2	14.3	16.3	-2.01	13.9	16.4	-2.43
Arron Afflalo	63	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.24	-26	16	-42	14.8	14.6	0.17	13.3	15.9	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.25,0.17,0.09,0.14,0.32,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 95, WAS 73	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
WAS 95, CHA 69	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
CLE 94, IND 73	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.16,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%