NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	93		Excitement	5.5 [718]		MVP	Charlie Villanueva (DAL): +8.7%
Miami Heat	72		Comeback	8.5 [384]		LVP	Norris Cole (MIA): -15.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.01	0.04	15	67%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	62%	0.08	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Devin Harris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.03	0.04	8	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Tyson Chandler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	7	69%	0.10	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Greg Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	16	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	10	25%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.02	12	62%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	64%	0.10	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Hamilton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	6	67%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	6	33%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	6	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.16	0.00	-0.05	18	31%	-0.04	3	-0.07	3	33%	-0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.05	-0.05	11	38%	-0.02	5	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	10	10%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	3.4	30.2	16.4	25.2	3.4	26.3	131.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +39.0%

DAL +6.5%

MIA -3.3%

DAL +6.0%

DAL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	16.6	15.1	102.2	79.1	104.2
season	14.6	16.0		107.6	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.0		105.4	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.0	14.9	12.6	19.2	15.1
MIA	18.8	16.3	16.9	14.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	43	39	0.72	-0.22	0.95	-0.13	29	-8	37	16.1	14.1	1.99	16.6	16.5	0.10
Devin Harris	50	50	0.67	-0.17	0.84	-0.06	25	-4	29	15.7	14.3	1.36	16.5	16.7	-0.14
Al-Farouq Aminu	54	53	0.60	-0.10	0.69	-0.08	23	-2	25	16.0	13.7	2.34	16.4	16.8	-0.45
Jose Juan Barea	33	34	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	5	11	17.6	13.6	4.03	14.2	18.0	-3.84
Dirk Nowitzki	55	58	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.08	8	13	-5	14.2	16.4	-2.14	15.6	18.2	-2.60
Monta Ellis	58	57	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	16	-11	13.6	17.6	-4.03	18.0	14.2	3.84
Tyson Chandler	58	57	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.28	12	9	3	14.8	15.6	-0.80	17.4	15.3	2.10
Greg Smith	21	22	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.11	-6	27	-33	17.1	14.4	2.70	15.4	17.0	-1.61
Richard Jefferson	39	40	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.02	-4	25	-29	13.7	16.1	-2.36	17.1	16.2	0.97
Rajon Rondo	44	45	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	24	-27	13.8	16.2	-2.42	17.2	16.0	1.13

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	52	53	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.28	-7	-14	7	16.9	16.2	0.66	15.6	14.4	1.20
Shabazz Napier	31	32	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-23	25	16.1	16.8	-0.79	16.2	14.5	1.68
Justin Hamilton	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-21	21	13.5	16.7	-3.15	31.0	14.7	16.29
Danny Granger	31	32	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-20	19	16.9	16.4	0.44	13.0	16.2	-3.23
Mario Chalmers	67	67	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.30	-16	-5	-11	17.1	15.2	1.92	14.7	16.2	-1.50
Chris Bosh	69	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.20	-16	-5	-11	15.7	19.4	-3.67	14.7	16.0	-1.29
Chris Andersen	30	29	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.13	-7	-14	7	17.4	16.2	1.27	14.0	15.5	-1.51
Norris Cole	39	38	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	-10	-1	17.9	15.6	2.39	12.8	16.7	-3.91
Tyler Johnson	45	45	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.05	-17	-4	-13	15.0	18.1	-3.13	16.8	13.4	3.43
Shawne Williams	29	32	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	-9	-3	17.5	16.1	1.37	14.9	15.2	-0.25
James Ennis	60	59	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.09	-20	-1	-19	16.4	16.9	-0.44	16.2	13.0	3.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.73,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.64,0.5,0.38,0.21,0.2,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 106, SAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.1,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.8%
DAL 91, ATL 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.64,0.8,0.84,0.92,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.56,0.42,0.3,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	93.7%
CHI 114, ATL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.43,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.83,0.71,0.82,0.8,0.71,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.26,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.2%