NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	92		Excitement	4.5 [924]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +16.8%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.0 [1155]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -8.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Pekovic	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	-0.01	0.01	10	70%	0.12	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Shabazz Muhammad	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	11	54%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.02	-0.05	9	40%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Gorgui Dieng	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.03	7	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Robbie Hummel	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	9	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Zach LaVine	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	0.00	-0.05	5	20%	-0.03	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	17	46%	-0.04	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	7	31%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.05	-0.00	16	68%	0.21	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.07	-0.03	21	50%	0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	9	78%	0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	79%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	9	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.15	0.00	-0.06	4	20%	-0.02	5	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.6	27.6	15.3	24.6	2.6	30.3	126.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +54.6%

MIN -2.6%

MIN -16.1%

MIA +11.9%

MIA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	15.6	15.1	95.8	106.2	104.2
season	15.0	16.0		101.2	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.0		105.4	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.9	13.8	14.0	13.0	14.4
MIA	14.4	14.4	14.8	18.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shabazz Muhammad	22	23	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.20	7	-17	24	12.4	15.0	-2.59	17.1	15.1	1.96
Robbie Hummel	25	26	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-11	12	14.1	14.5	-0.44	16.7	15.2	1.45
Chase Budinger	16	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-7	4	14.1	14.5	-0.34	12.7	16.2	-3.49
Mo Williams	45	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-13	16	13.3	15.4	-2.15	15.5	15.7	-0.16
Corey Brewer	45	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.20	1	-11	12	13.3	15.4	-2.02	14.9	16.3	-1.39
Gorgui Dieng	39	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-3	-4	13.1	15.3	-2.28	14.4	16.4	-1.99
Kevin Martin	55	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-3	-4	15.1	13.4	1.69	16.0	15.1	0.84
Zach LaVine	51	50	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	0	-10	15.4	13.3	2.15	15.4	15.8	-0.49
Nikola Pekovic	57	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	-4	-2	15.3	13.1	2.28	16.7	14.0	2.65
Thaddeus Young	71	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	1	-12	14.5	14.1	0.44	15.2	16.7	-1.45
Andrew Wiggins	54	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.09	-18	8	-26	15.5	13.0	2.42	16.1	15.0	1.08

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	73	71	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.13	13	-3	16	15.8	14.9	0.90	14.4	14.3	0.12
Norris Cole	61	62	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.02	13	-3	16	15.8	15.2	0.57	14.9	13.6	1.31
Shawne Williams	63	65	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.05	11	-1	12	15.7	15.4	0.30	14.8	13.5	1.31
Luol Deng	61	61	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	0	10	15.7	15.3	0.39	14.8	13.7	1.18
Dwyane Wade	57	56	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.14	6	4	2	16.5	14.3	2.25	14.8	13.8	1.04
Mario Chalmers	39	41	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	5	0	14.3	16.5	-2.25	14.1	14.6	-0.54
James Ennis	35	34	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	11	-12	15.3	15.7	-0.39	13.3	15.0	-1.72
Josh McRoberts	29	28	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	10	-10	16.1	15.4	0.68	13.6	14.7	-1.08
Shabazz Napier	35	34	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.18	-3	13	-16	15.2	15.8	-0.57	13.6	14.9	-1.31
Udonis Haslem	27	28	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	14	-18	14.3	16.1	-1.86	14.1	14.5	-0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.85,0.9,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 74, ATL 83	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.83,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.96,1	95.4%
DET 69, PHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.68,0.76,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.87,0.87,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.3%
TOR 74, CLE 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%