NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	74		Excitement	4.1 [791]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (ATL): +11.7%
Atlanta Hawks	83		Comeback	1.0 [688]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -15.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	19	48%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Rajon Rondo	0.03	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	18	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	12	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	19	29%	-0.14	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.02	-0.02	8	75%	0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	10	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05	0.05	-0.06	0.03	-0.08	20	45%	0.09	3	-0.04	9	67%	-0.01
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11	-0.11	-0.20	0.01	-0.08	15	29%	-0.01	4	-0.10	8	62%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.7	32.2	18.8	25.3	3.5	35.4	143.2
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +52.8%

ATL +0.3%

ATL +9.2%

BOS -16.2%

ATL +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	16.0	17.1	15.6	85.1	95.4	102.8
season	15.5	15.7		99.4	102.5
opponent	15.9	16.2		99.5	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.5	15.2	15.3	16.1	16.0
ATL	13.8	16.8	19.0	19.1	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	13	12	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-10	11	14.0	16.4	-2.41	15.7	17.3	-1.52
Sasha Pavlovic	12	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-9	9	13.3	16.5	-3.15	15.5	17.3	-1.81
Greg Stiemsma	34	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-7	5	17.4	15.2	2.29	16.2	17.6	-1.46
Mickael Pietrus	37	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-4	-1	17.9	14.7	3.21	16.9	17.2	-0.29
Brandon Bass	62	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-4	-1	15.8	16.6	-0.72	17.7	15.3	2.38
Rajon Rondo	77	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-7	5	16.3	14.4	1.86	17.3	15.1	2.21
Avery Bradley	52	53	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	4	-17	14.8	17.9	-3.03	16.8	17.5	-0.73
Kevin Garnett	72	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-3	-3	16.4	14.3	2.15	17.2	16.5	0.70
Paul Pierce	76	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.17	-13	4	-17	15.7	18.2	-2.44	17.3	15.5	1.73

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	70	71	0.67	-0.17	0.83	-0.04	24	-15	39	16.7	18.6	-1.90	15.5	18.6	-3.16
Josh Smith	77	78	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.11	17	-8	25	16.6	20.3	-3.66	15.9	17.4	-1.56
Jason Collins	56	56	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.09	15	-6	21	17.8	15.7	2.04	16.6	15.0	1.57
Jeff Teague	61	61	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	-3	15	17.4	16.3	1.12	14.9	18.8	-3.88
Kirk Hinrich	61	60	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.07	12	-3	15	16.4	18.5	-2.06	14.9	18.6	-3.64
Tracy McGrady	23	23	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	9	-9	18.2	16.7	1.52	18.2	15.3	2.95
Jannero Pargo	17	17	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.17	-6	15	-21	18.6	16.7	1.90	18.2	15.5	2.65
Marvin Williams	25	25	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.14	-6	15	-21	15.9	17.5	-1.60	17.4	15.5	1.96
Ivan Johnson	28	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.19	-8	17	-25	16.5	17.3	-0.77	16.0	16.1	-0.07
Willie Green	17	16	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.27	-15	24	-39	18.6	16.7	1.90	18.6	15.5	3.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.83,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 92, MIA 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.85,0.9,0.97,1,1	95.4%
UTA 103, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.85,0.87,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.96,1	95.0%
MIA 89, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.98,1	95.0%