NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	103		Excitement	4.2 [961]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +15.8%
Dallas Mavericks	106		Comeback	1.1 [1091]		LVP	Bryon Russell (UTA): -10.8%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Padgett	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	13	65%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.03	9	61%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
John Stockton	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	19	56%	0.03	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Karl Malone	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04	0.04	0.02	0.10	19	60%	0.01	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.02
John Starks	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	6	21%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.10	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.07	-0.01	0.02	10	46%	-0.07	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Bryon Russell	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	8	17%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16	0.16	0.18	0.03	0.05	14	85%	0.23	3	-0.07	12	100%	0.08
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	11	75%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	4	90%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.13	-0.00	-0.11	19	51%	0.11	7	-0.13	7	86%	0.02
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	7	31%	-0.03	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	57%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.15	-0.00	-0.10	12	8%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.5	30.1	15.7	23.2	1.6	38.0	137.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +42.2%

DAL +13.4%

DAL +6.5%

UTA -14.3%

DAL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DAL	NBA	UTA	DAL	NBA
this game	15.9	15.1	15.6	113.2	111.6	102.3
season	16.1	14.8		102.9	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.1		105.8	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	17.0	16.6	18.0	12.4	15.9
DAL	14.4	14.1	14.8	16.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Padgett	63	64	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.65	18	-21	39	15.3	17.2	-1.87	15.4	14.3	1.15
Bryon Russell	66	68	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.58	12	-15	27	14.8	18.8	-3.91	15.4	14.2	1.23
John Starks	35	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	5	-13	17.7	14.8	2.91	16.6	14.2	2.40
Jarron Collins	30	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	10	-23	16.9	15.4	1.51	13.9	15.7	-1.77
John Stockton	69	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.41	2	-5	7	15.7	16.5	-0.76	15.1	14.9	0.26
DeShawn Stevenson	44	46	-0.39	-0.12	-0.27	0.08	-16	13	-29	17.5	14.4	3.05	14.6	15.5	-0.97
Andrei Kirilenko	71	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	3	-9	15.3	18.1	-2.79	14.5	17.1	-2.67
Karl Malone	77	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.35	-4	1	-5	15.9	15.9	0.08	15.0	15.1	-0.08

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	66	63	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.03	16	-13	29	15.5	14.1	1.43	17.8	11.8	5.98
Adrian Griffin	70	67	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.27	8	-5	13	15.2	14.6	0.63	16.0	15.6	0.46
Dirk Nowitzki	85	82	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	-2	7	15.3	13.4	1.86	15.7	17.8	-2.06
Steve Nash	79	74	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	1	1	15.0	15.6	-0.60	15.7	16.9	-1.18
Greg Buckner	69	66	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	-1	5	15.0	15.2	-0.23	15.7	16.4	-0.71
Tim Hardaway	27	27	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	1	1	15.1	15.0	0.07	16.0	15.9	0.06
Johnny Newman	12	11	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.17	-4	7	-11	13.2	15.3	-2.17	14.6	16.1	-1.46
Eduardo Najera	46	44	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.37	-13	16	-29	14.7	15.4	-0.75	14.7	17.1	-2.40
Wang Zhi-zhi	21	21	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.12	-5	8	-13	14.8	15.1	-0.33	15.4	16.1	-0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.85,0.87,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 75, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
SEA 78, GSW 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
NOK 73, DAL 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.8,0.85,0.93,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%