NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	73		Excitement	2.8 [1217]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +15.1%
Dallas Mavericks	85		Comeback	1.0 [1276]		LVP	Desmond Mason (NOK): -9.8%

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyson Chandler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02
Bobby Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	10	38%	0.01	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.04
Hilton Armstrong	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	87%	0.01	2	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Marcus Vinicius	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Cedric Simmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	5	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	15	56%	0.00	4	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Linton Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	8	25%	-0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	14	40%	-0.00	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Marc Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	7	28%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.13	0.00	-0.03	6	37%	-0.02	5	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.16	0.01	0.01	13	82%	0.18	3	-0.03	8	87%	-0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	9	56%	0.08	1	-0.01	9	78%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.02	5	69%	0.07	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	8	33%	0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	10	45%	0.04	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Ager	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	17%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	2	67%	0.00	3	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	6	39%	-0.02	2	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.05	5	18%	-0.03	3	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	1.0	28.0	16.0	29.6	2.0	30.3	133.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +31.6%

DAL +12.1%

NOK -3.5%

DAL +4.6%

DAL +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOK	DAL	NBA	NOK	DAL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.3	15.4	79.3	91.4	104.5
season	16.0	16.3		102.8	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.3	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOK	17.7	16.4	17.6	12.2	15.8
DAL	13.6	14.9	18.4	14.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	13	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-21	30	12.6	16.3	-3.73	15.4	15.3	0.07
Marcus Vinicius	20	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.18	6	-18	24	13.0	16.6	-3.53	13.8	15.7	-1.88
Hilton Armstrong	26	27	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.17	5	-17	22	12.2	17.2	-5.00	14.9	15.5	-0.61
Linton Johnson	31	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	-10	8	13.3	17.1	-3.86	15.8	15.1	0.75
Rasual Butler	48	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.22	4	-16	20	14.3	17.5	-3.23	14.8	15.9	-1.16
Cedric Simmons	26	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-9	6	16.1	15.7	0.42	17.0	14.7	2.24
Jannero Pargo	59	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.28	3	-15	18	14.2	18.7	-4.54	15.0	15.9	-0.96
Bobby Jackson	41	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	-3	-6	17.8	14.2	3.55	16.5	14.5	2.02
Marc Jackson	27	28	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.23	-21	9	-30	19.1	14.4	4.66	13.2	16.2	-3.02
Desmond Mason	54	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	4	-20	18.1	12.5	5.60	15.5	15.0	0.51
Tyson Chandler	55	56	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.13	-19	7	-26	17.1	13.8	3.31	15.3	15.3	-0.00
Chris Paul	60	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.05	-17	5	-22	16.9	13.8	3.07	15.9	14.3	1.54

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	60	60	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.26	26	-14	40	14.7	16.4	-1.61	16.6	14.4	2.21
Dirk Nowitzki	61	61	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.17	20	-8	28	13.9	18.0	-4.08	16.3	14.9	1.42
Devin Harris	49	49	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.25	22	-10	32	15.8	14.8	0.91	17.5	13.9	3.67
Erick Dampier	36	36	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.05	13	-1	14	16.7	14.4	2.33	18.1	14.4	3.68
Josh Howard	47	49	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.00	10	2	8	15.6	15.1	0.47	17.2	14.2	2.97
DeSagana Diop	54	54	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.15	2	10	-8	14.9	16.0	-1.12	14.2	18.1	-3.81
Anthony Johnson	37	37	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.19	-3	15	-18	14.9	15.6	-0.72	14.2	16.9	-2.63
Jerry Stackhouse	35	33	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.16	-2	14	-16	16.3	14.7	1.59	15.4	16.1	-0.70
Greg Buckner	32	31	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.18	-3	15	-18	15.2	15.4	-0.25	14.2	16.6	-2.40
Austin Croshere	35	33	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.37	-11	23	-34	17.0	14.3	2.74	15.1	16.2	-1.18
Maurice Ager	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	19	-26	14.8	15.4	-0.56	11.3	16.4	-5.16
Jose Juan Barea	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	19	-26	14.6	15.4	-0.81	11.5	16.1	-4.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.8,0.85,0.93,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 83, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
MIL 78, IND 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.84,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
CLE 86, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%