NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	4.1 [1001]		MVP	Mo Williams (CLE): +15.4%
Cleveland Cavaliers	99		Comeback	1.0 [1238]		LVP	Jamario Moon (MIA): -7.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	10	76%	0.13	4	-0.10	5	100%	0.02
Michael Beasley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.02	0.05	13	61%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Daequan Cook	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.04	7	59%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
James Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	9	33%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	0.02	0.01	0.03	10	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0.04	23	49%	0.02	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Jamario Moon	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.19	0.01	0.05	15	88%	0.20	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	11	70%	0.13	4	-0.07	5	100%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.06	1	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.02	-0.04	15	38%	0.02	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.03
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	8	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.6	28.3	14.7	27.1	2.7	35.3	135.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +48.4%

MIA -5.7%

CLE +4.9%

MIA -3.1%

CLE +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	14.7	17.5	15.5	98.9	111.2	106.4
season	16.0	16.9		105.9	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.7		101.0	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.3	14.7	15.9	14.9	14.7
CLE	18.0	17.4	18.4	16.4	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-8	6	6.0	14.9	-8.85	1.3	18.1	-16.77
Joel Anthony	9	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-10	10	16.2	14.5	1.74	16.7	17.6	-0.97
Chris Quinn	12	11	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-6	2	15.9	14.5	1.46	15.7	17.8	-2.07
Dorell Wright	13	11	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	-6	2	14.3	14.7	-0.41	18.5	17.4	1.15
Daequan Cook	36	37	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.19	1	-11	12	15.0	14.4	0.62	16.3	18.4	-2.08
Michael Beasley	46	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-7	4	14.7	14.6	0.13	16.8	18.3	-1.43
Udonis Haslem	61	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-1	-8	14.7	14.6	0.10	17.4	17.8	-0.36
Dwyane Wade	75	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.39	3	-13	16	14.4	15.7	-1.29	18.7	11.2	7.51
Jermaine O'Neal	64	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	-2	-6	14.4	15.4	-1.03	18.3	15.8	2.48
Jamario Moon	72	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	-4	-2	15.1	12.9	2.14	18.0	15.6	2.42
Mario Chalmers	60	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.10	-18	8	-26	14.3	15.4	-1.07	17.2	18.2	-1.05

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	80	81	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.15	11	-1	12	17.6	16.7	0.97	14.5	16.2	-1.74
Anderson Varejao	69	70	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-3	16	17.5	17.7	-0.27	14.2	16.3	-2.11
Mo Williams	72	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	0	10	17.7	16.7	1.03	14.6	15.1	-0.50
Delonte West	81	81	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.24	4	6	-2	17.6	16.5	1.14	13.9	21.8	-7.91
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	41	44	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.23	0	10	-10	18.4	16.8	1.53	14.8	14.5	0.36
Daniel Gibson	25	26	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.03	6	4	2	16.6	17.9	-1.25	17.4	13.5	3.84
Joe Smith	39	38	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	10	-10	18.8	16.6	2.19	15.1	14.4	0.69
Wally Szczerbiak	29	28	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.08	7	3	4	14.9	18.8	-3.97	15.0	14.5	0.50
JJ Hickson	9	9	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	11	-12	16.7	17.6	-0.97	16.2	14.5	1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, HOU 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
DET 103, ORL 110	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1	95.7%
NJN 96, SAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.81,0.89,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.92,0.81,0.94,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.96,1,1,1	95.7%