NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	103		Excitement	3.5 [1085]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +14.3%
Orlando Magic	110		Comeback	1.0 [1307]		LVP	Will Bynum (DET): -6.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.16	0.00	0.08	17	70%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Austin Daye	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	7	79%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0.03	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	18	53%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	64%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	37%	-0.04
Jason Maxiell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	17	42%	0.00	1	-0.01	11	82%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	3	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.05
Will Bynum	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.01	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.18	-0.00	0.04	8	88%	0.15	1	-0.01	9	89%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.01	-0.01	7	73%	0.11	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	-0.00	9	62%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.11	0.00	0.07	7	76%	0.05	0	0.00	7	100%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.05	0.03	-0.06	12	50%	0.11	4	-0.06	12	75%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	15	56%	0.08	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	8	18%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	1.8	33.4	16.5	35.4	2.5	41.2	158.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +14.2%

ORL +21.6%

ORL +9.4%

ORL +3.9%

ORL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	16.2	15.3	114.4	120.9	106.0
season	16.8	15.4		104.0	110.1
opponent	15.9	15.2		101.9	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.8	15.0	13.7	15.9	15.6
ORL	13.5	16.3	20.6	14.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	24	24	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-12	17	12.7	16.7	-4.03	17.7	15.6	2.11
Chris Wilcox	18	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	-2	-3	15.3	15.7	-0.43	14.2	16.7	-2.53
Jason Maxiell	40	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.33	6	-13	19	15.0	16.1	-1.12	16.5	16.0	0.49
Austin Daye	35	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-5	3	15.5	15.7	-0.22	16.4	16.1	0.25
Jonas Jerebko	39	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.10	-13	6	-19	17.6	14.1	3.43	17.1	15.4	1.71
Charlie Villanueva	57	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.26	-1	-6	5	15.5	15.8	-0.31	16.3	16.0	0.37
Ben Wallace	31	31	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.11	-14	7	-21	18.1	14.3	3.82	16.2	16.2	-0.01
Will Bynum	60	62	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.33	1	-8	9	14.8	17.3	-2.52	15.8	17.0	-1.23
Rodney Stuckey	67	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	0	-7	16.5	13.1	3.35	15.5	18.3	-2.80
Ben Gordon	79	79	-0.45	-0.06	-0.39	-0.30	-5	-2	-3	15.0	19.9	-4.88	16.3	15.6	0.71

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	72	73	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.17	10	-3	13	16.7	14.4	2.31	15.0	18.2	-3.22
Matt Barnes	68	67	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.26	4	3	1	15.9	17.2	-1.31	15.0	17.4	-2.43
Jameer Nelson	58	59	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.14	7	0	7	16.8	15.1	1.69	14.9	16.9	-2.00
Ryan Anderson	35	34	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	-5	17	15.9	16.4	-0.41	17.0	14.8	2.26
JJ Redick	57	56	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.02	9	-2	11	15.5	17.4	-1.94	16.8	13.7	3.03
Mickael Pietrus	60	59	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.43	-5	12	-17	15.8	17.0	-1.17	14.9	17.0	-2.05
Jason Williams	39	37	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.18	1	6	-5	16.5	16.0	0.55	16.2	15.2	0.92
Brandon Bass	42	43	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	7	-7	17.3	15.2	2.06	14.9	16.3	-1.33
Marcin Gortat	24	22	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.14	-3	10	-13	14.8	16.7	-1.85	18.6	14.6	3.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 83, LAC 106	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
GSW 116, CLE 137	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
MEM 82, MIA 94	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%