NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	82		Excitement	2.5 [1245]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +7.1%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	1.0 [1240]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -7.2%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	15	62%	0.04	3	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Marko Jaric	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	3	86%	0.02	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Quinton Ross	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miles	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	36%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	56%	0.00	1	-0.01	6	83%	-0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.12	0.00	-0.10	9	35%	0.02	4	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	50%	-0.00	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Conley	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	10	48%	-0.01	5	-0.06	3	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.02	-0.05	23	50%	0.09	3	-0.02	8	62%	0.01
Jamario Moon	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	7	60%	0.05	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	10	52%	0.05	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	13	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	6	71%	0.06	4	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	6	42%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	5	30%	0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	3	62%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.6	28.5	16.4	28.4	1.7	29.2	131.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.5%

MEM -3.4%

MIA +5.1%

MIA +9.7%

MIA +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIA	NBA	MEM	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	17.2	15.5	91.1	106.8	106.4
season	16.1	16.0		101.7	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.3		105.7	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.5	17.7	15.0	12.0	15.2
MIA	17.8	15.7	17.0	18.0	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Miles	16	16	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-10	8	13.9	15.5	-1.64	15.8	17.5	-1.65
Quinton Ross	14	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-11	10	13.9	15.5	-1.62	18.1	17.0	1.17
Darko Milicic	26	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.15	2	-14	16	15.1	15.3	-0.20	18.0	16.8	1.23
Marko Jaric	23	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.13	1	-13	14	14.6	15.4	-0.88	18.4	16.7	1.73
Greg Buckner	35	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.24	4	-16	20	14.2	15.9	-1.63	18.7	16.2	2.50
Hakim Warrick	40	40	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-14	16	14.7	15.6	-0.94	17.8	16.6	1.17
Darrell Arthur	43	41	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	0	-12	15.9	14.6	1.27	16.7	17.6	-0.85
O.J. Mayo	64	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-3	-6	15.3	15.0	0.31	17.1	17.2	-0.12
Marc Gasol	55	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	2	-16	15.5	14.7	0.83	17.0	17.4	-0.36
Mike Conley	67	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.02	-13	1	-14	15.4	14.6	0.88	16.7	18.4	-1.73
Rudy Gay	67	65	-0.42	-0.07	-0.35	0.10	-18	6	-24	15.9	13.1	2.81	16.2	19.9	-3.73

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	58	60	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.18	20	-8	28	16.7	18.1	-1.38	15.2	15.3	-0.12
Udonis Haslem	62	60	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.10	17	-5	22	16.9	17.8	-0.92	15.5	14.7	0.73
Mario Chalmers	53	53	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.05	15	-3	18	17.2	17.1	0.12	15.6	14.7	0.84
Jamaal Magloire	52	51	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.06	15	-3	18	16.8	17.6	-0.81	15.8	14.5	1.25
Jamario Moon	63	63	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	1	10	16.8	18.2	-1.40	15.0	15.7	-0.63
Michael Beasley	49	52	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	8	-4	16.9	17.5	-0.54	15.0	15.6	-0.57
James Jones	25	27	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.14	1	11	-10	18.2	16.8	1.40	15.7	15.0	0.63
Luther Head	34	37	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.20	-3	15	-18	17.1	17.2	-0.16	14.7	15.6	-0.84
Daequan Cook	26	26	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	14	-16	17.3	17.1	0.27	16.3	14.8	1.47
Joel Anthony	10	13	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.21	-7	19	-26	19.6	16.8	2.75	14.8	15.3	-0.44
Chris Quinn	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	17	-22	22.7	16.9	5.86	9.0	15.5	-6.51
Yakhouba Diawara	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	18	-24	22.7	16.9	5.86	9.0	15.5	-6.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 88, POR 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%
SAC 102, DAL 123	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%
PHI 105, TOR 117	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.71,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	97.1%