NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	4.2 [956]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +14.6%
Houston Rockets	112		Comeback	1.0 [1260]		LVP	Dorell Wright (MIA): -7.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.13	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	0.01	0.03	21	67%	0.18	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	15	44%	0.06	1	-0.03	11	36%	-0.07
Mark Blount	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	11	48%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Alexander Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	62%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Marcus Banks	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.02	1	150%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	10	60%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	42%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	9	44%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.16	0.02	0.03	11	87%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.02	0.04	9	79%	0.12	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.01	0.03	6	86%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	-0.05	14	53%	0.08	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	19	51%	0.05	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	58%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Luis Scola	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	10	42%	0.02	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.02
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.6	27.5	19.0	31.3	3.8	32.2	141.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +32.4%

MIA -0.2%

HOU +8.6%

HOU +4.7%

HOU +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	15.1	16.0	15.4	108.7	120.4	105.7
season	16.0	16.2		99.0	104.6
opponent	15.2	15.4		100.3	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	14.7	13.8	15.8	15.1
HOU	12.4	16.7	15.5	20.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexander Johnson	26	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.23	5	-17	22	14.3	15.5	-1.20	16.7	15.7	1.04
Marcus Banks	15	17	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-12	12	14.8	15.2	-0.39	19.5	15.2	4.25
Chris Quinn	16	15	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.01	-6	-6	0	15.0	15.2	-0.16	14.9	16.2	-1.35
Mark Blount	57	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-9	6	15.5	14.6	0.90	15.6	16.6	-0.96
Jason Williams	46	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	-6	0	15.4	14.9	0.48	14.2	17.6	-3.36
Earl Barron	35	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	-3	-6	14.6	15.5	-0.90	16.6	15.6	0.96
Dorell Wright	66	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	-5	-2	15.3	14.7	0.56	15.6	17.0	-1.41
Ricky Davis	40	42	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-9	-3	-6	15.5	14.9	0.61	17.6	14.7	2.91
Shawn Marion	82	83	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-1	-10	15.4	13.3	2.05	15.8	17.7	-1.90
Dwyane Wade	77	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.02	-14	2	-16	14.8	16.7	-1.92	15.9	16.5	-0.56

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	75	76	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.12	23	-11	34	15.2	19.2	-3.93	15.2	14.6	0.61
Luis Scola	68	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	1	10	14.7	19.5	-4.76	14.6	16.7	-2.19
Rafer Alston	74	73	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.01	14	-2	16	15.8	16.9	-1.12	15.0	15.7	-0.76
Shane Battier	74	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	-2	16	15.6	17.7	-2.18	15.0	15.6	-0.63
Carl Landry	47	44	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	7	-2	17.8	14.2	3.61	15.0	15.3	-0.29
Yao Ming	71	72	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	4	4	16.0	15.9	0.18	15.8	12.8	2.91
Luther Head	28	27	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.24	-3	15	-18	18.8	14.8	4.04	15.4	15.0	0.34
Aaron Brooks	16	16	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.17	-5	17	-22	16.9	15.8	1.06	15.4	15.1	0.30
Steve Novak	12	11	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.20	-7	19	-26	17.2	15.8	1.34	15.4	15.1	0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 81, MEM 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
LAL 80, ORL 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
IND 91, CHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.9%