NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	91		Excitement	3.3 [1143]		MVP	Danny Granger (IND): +12.1%
Chicago Bulls	106		Comeback	1.0 [1278]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (IND): -4.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.02	-0.02	14	70%	0.17	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Maceo Baston	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	5	86%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	11	68%	0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
David Harrison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	9	68%	0.04	2	-0.04	1	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	19	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Rawle Marshall	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Powell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	13	68%	0.13	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.03
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.00	-0.03	11	68%	0.13	3	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	4	100%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.05	6	83%	0.09	4	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	11	69%	0.12	4	-0.08	10	60%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	10	43%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	62%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Sweetney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.3	27.5	15.6	27.2	2.3	26.4	130.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +19.5%

CHI +13.7%

CHI +11.4%

CHI +1.9%

CHI +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	CHI	NBA	IND	CHI	NBA
this game	17.2	15.7	15.4	104.6	120.5	104.5
season	15.3	14.5		101.3	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.3		98.1	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.5	16.3	18.5	17.9	17.2
CHI	13.0	15.0	17.5	18.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Powell	23	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-16	17	16.1	17.6	-1.52	15.1	15.9	-0.85
Orien Greene	13	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-13	11	16.7	17.3	-0.60	16.1	15.6	0.51
Jeff Foster	53	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-15	15	17.9	16.1	1.84	17.3	13.3	4.04
Jamaal Tinsley	61	62	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-14	13	17.6	16.3	1.28	16.0	15.1	0.91
Rawle Marshall	18	17	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.11	-11	-4	-7	16.4	17.4	-0.96	12.9	16.4	-3.44
Darrell Armstrong	35	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	-8	1	16.7	17.5	-0.82	15.2	16.1	-0.84
Maceo Baston	40	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.02	-8	-7	-1	17.3	17.1	0.17	16.7	14.9	1.75
Shawne Williams	49	50	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.08	-7	-8	1	17.3	17.1	0.23	15.9	15.5	0.38
Sarunas Jasikevicius	50	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.05	-8	-7	-1	17.5	16.8	0.69	16.1	15.2	0.94
David Harrison	24	27	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.11	-14	-1	-13	15.9	17.7	-1.78	14.2	16.4	-2.15
Danny Granger	69	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.09	-18	3	-21	17.3	16.7	0.68	14.9	18.6	-3.65

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	77	77	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	1	13	15.4	18.0	-2.61	17.2	17.1	0.12
Andres Nocioni	61	58	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.10	18	-3	21	15.8	15.4	0.39	17.3	17.0	0.36
Kirk Hinrich	59	59	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	-1	17	14.9	17.4	-2.53	17.5	16.6	0.83
Ben Wallace	76	75	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.15	8	7	1	16.2	12.5	3.72	17.4	15.8	1.59
Ben Gordon	58	57	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	8	-1	15.1	17.0	-1.95	16.7	18.2	-1.57
Chris Duhon	57	56	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.08	7	8	-1	17.3	12.8	4.49	17.4	16.8	0.62
P.J. Brown	44	45	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	10	-5	15.4	16.0	-0.61	16.5	18.0	-1.49
Malik Allen	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	14.5	15.7	-1.24	18.5	17.2	1.32
Michael Sweetney	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	14.5	15.7	-1.24	18.5	17.2	1.32
Tyrus Thomas	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	14.5	15.7	-1.24	18.5	17.2	1.32
Thabo Sefolosha	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	14.5	15.7	-1.24	18.5	17.2	1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 71, PHX 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
CLE 98, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.96,1,1	96.4%
HOU 86, PHX 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%