NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	109		Excitement	7.4 [355]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +36.4%
San Antonio Spurs	100		Comeback	2.6 [274]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -22.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.31,0.33,0.33	0.16	0.17	0.00	14	86%	0.39	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.22	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22	0.04	0.16	-0.02	22	54%	0.27	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Nicolas Batum	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.01	6	60%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Thomas Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	16	52%	0.07	2	-0.09	8	100%	0.08
Robin Lopez	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.06	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	13	42%	-0.06	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.21,0.29,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.36	0.36	0.20	0.15	-0.02	17	71%	0.37	1	-0.00	7	100%	0.05
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	9	70%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	87%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	2	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	11	54%	0.09	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.05
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	12	46%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.07	-0.13	0.00	11	37%	-0.08	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.10	-0.11	0.02	16	37%	-0.13	3	-0.09	3	33%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.8	29.0	15.4	23.6	2.6	32.2	125.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +33.4%

SAS -2.2%

POR +15.9%

POR +3.2%

SAS -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAS	NBA	POR	SAS	NBA
this game	14.7	14.8	15.1	111.2	103.1	105.2
season	15.1	15.0		109.6	109.8
opponent	15.0	14.8		101.1	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.5	12.7	15.7	16.2	14.7
SAS	13.8	15.6	16.3	13.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robin Lopez	69	67	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.43	17	-8	25	15.0	14.0	1.01	15.0	14.3	0.71
Damian Lillard	75	74	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.38	16	-7	23	14.8	14.4	0.37	14.9	14.7	0.11
Nicolas Batum	75	74	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.33	13	-4	17	15.2	13.2	1.96	14.4	16.3	-2.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	78	77	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.33	9	0	9	15.0	13.6	1.40	14.7	15.1	-0.41
Wesley Matthews	68	68	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	8	-7	14.5	15.3	-0.84	15.1	14.2	0.88
Mo Williams	55	54	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.05	6	3	3	14.2	15.3	-1.13	14.9	14.8	0.10
Thomas Robinson	20	20	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.10	0	9	-9	13.6	15.0	-1.40	15.1	14.7	0.41
CJ McCollum	23	23	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.15	-7	16	-23	14.4	14.8	-0.37	14.7	14.9	-0.11
Joel Freeland	27	28	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	-0.14	-10	19	-29	14.3	14.9	-0.53	14.8	14.8	-0.00

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Ayres	32	32	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.13	6	-15	21	15.5	14.5	1.01	13.7	15.2	-1.52
Patty Mills	36	38	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-9	9	15.2	14.6	0.54	14.4	14.9	-0.56
Manu Ginobili	51	51	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-7	5	14.5	15.1	-0.58	14.6	14.8	-0.22
Kawhi Leonard	61	62	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.10	-6	-3	-3	14.6	15.1	-0.50	13.7	16.4	-2.65
Matt Bonner	12	13	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-5	1	16.6	14.6	2.01	13.1	15.0	-1.89
Tim Duncan	71	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.34	-7	-2	-5	14.6	15.5	-0.92	15.3	13.1	2.14
Tony Parker	72	72	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.34	-10	1	-11	14.5	15.9	-1.42	15.2	13.2	2.02
Boris Diaw	77	76	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.36	-11	2	-13	14.7	15.3	-0.66	15.0	13.6	1.45
Marco Belinelli	73	73	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.42	-11	2	-13	15.2	13.8	1.37	15.1	13.5	1.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.16,0.23,0.29,0.19,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.22,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 95, ATL 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.27,0.23,0.33,0.44,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.47,0.38,0.21,0.17,0.1,0	94.0%
IND 102, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.44,0.3,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.02,0	92.5%
PHX 107, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.21,0.16,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.4,0.32,0.46,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.16,0.02,0,0	92.2%