NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	102		Excitement	5.9 [641]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (WAS): +15.5%
Detroit Pistons	113		Comeback	1.4 [794]		LVP	John Wall (WAS): -18.9%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.19	-0.01	0.02	14	78%	0.20	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.03
Martell Webster	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	1	125%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nene	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	6	63%	0.05	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.02
Eric Maynor	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	56%	0.07	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Garrett Temple	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.02	0.00	4	40%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Trevor Booker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	18	44%	0.02	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
John Wall	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.11	-0.05	0.03	21	42%	-0.07	4	-0.11	6	67%	-0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.01	12	79%	0.19	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.01	6	53%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.04	8	80%	0.10	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	7	86%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.04	-0.05	15	53%	0.11	5	-0.05	15	80%	0.02
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Peyton Siva	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Mitchell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gigi Datome	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	0.04	13	59%	0.08	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	0.00	12	35%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.5	29.3	18.4	31.3	1.8	42.4	146.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +32.7%

WAS -2.9%

DET +10.2%

DET +6.9%

DET +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DET	NBA	WAS	DET	NBA
this game	14.0	15.4	15.1	104.1	115.3	105.2
season	15.1	15.0		103.8	104.7
opponent	15.0	15.5		108.4	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.4	14.7	15.4	10.7	14.0
DET	15.2	14.7	15.3	16.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Booker	39	39	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.08	3	-14	17	15.1	13.3	1.82	16.9	14.4	2.47
Kevin Seraphin	10	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	-8	5	13.5	14.0	-0.53	11.8	15.8	-4.00
Eric Maynor	20	19	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-8	5	12.9	14.3	-1.36	13.9	15.8	-1.81
Garrett Temple	12	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	-4	-3	12.1	14.2	-2.16	13.9	15.6	-1.70
Martell Webster	46	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-8	5	12.5	15.3	-2.79	15.4	15.4	-0.02
Marcin Gortat	33	35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	-5	-1	14.5	13.7	0.85	14.4	16.0	-1.61
Bradley Beal	78	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-8	5	14.0	13.8	0.23	15.2	16.1	-0.93
Al Harrington	39	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	-5	-1	14.0	14.0	0.03	14.9	15.7	-0.75
Nene	60	60	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	-1	-9	14.2	13.6	0.70	16.2	14.1	2.09
Trevor Ariza	75	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.13	-9	-2	-7	14.2	13.4	0.77	15.6	14.8	0.76
John Wall	78	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	-3	-5	14.3	12.9	1.36	15.8	13.9	1.81

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	79	79	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.14	13	-2	15	15.4	15.6	-0.21	14.6	11.3	3.37
Greg Monroe	83	82	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	3	5	15.4	15.6	-0.23	14.4	12.0	2.37
Kyle Singler	59	59	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.17	8	3	5	14.7	16.4	-1.71	12.9	15.7	-2.80
Will Bynum	79	79	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	2	7	15.7	14.1	1.62	13.5	15.8	-2.25
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	55	54	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	4	3	14.7	16.3	-1.63	14.7	13.1	1.61
Chauncey Billups	62	63	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.13	6	5	1	15.6	15.1	0.43	13.8	14.3	-0.57
Jonas Jerebko	19	18	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.07	0	11	-11	15.7	15.3	0.41	12.2	14.4	-2.15
Andre Drummond	51	53	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	7	-3	16.6	14.1	2.50	14.7	13.1	1.65
Peyton Siva	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	10.0	15.5	-5.46	8.0	14.0	-6.04
Tony Mitchell	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	10.0	15.5	-5.46	8.0	14.0	-6.04
Gigi Datome	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	10.0	15.5	-5.46	8.0	14.0	-6.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 112, WAS 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.82,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,1	95.3%
UTA 91, WAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.2%
TOR 77, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.81,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%