NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	112		Excitement	5.7 [722]		MVP	Antawn Jamison (WAS): +25.6%
Washington Wizards	119		Comeback	1.4 [981]		LVP	Mo Williams (MIL): -11.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.01	12	85%	0.20	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Goldwire	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.03	0.02	6	85%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.01	0.03	22	65%	0.15	2	-0.06	10	70%	-0.02
Calvin Booth	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Marcus Fizer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	6	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Toni Kukoc	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.05	0.04	14	60%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Mo Williams	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	16	31%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.26	0.26	0.20	0.09	0.03	19	76%	0.28	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.01	15	66%	0.15	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	-0.00	12	65%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	12	55%	0.02	2	-0.04	7	43%	-0.02
Jared Jeffries	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	5	36%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	0.02	-0.01	9	38%	0.01	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	25.6	15.5	23.5	2.4	37.5	130.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +28.8%

WAS +7.0%

WAS +18.4%

MIL -4.4%

WAS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.5	14.8	15.5	123.1	128.0	104.0
season	16.0	14.7		104.4	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.0		105.5	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.1	18.6	16.4	15.3	16.5
WAS	13.9	18.4	14.2	13.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	57	58	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.13	2	-9	11	16.3	16.8	-0.56	14.6	15.2	-0.61
Anthony Goldwire	33	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-6	5	17.2	16.1	1.07	16.7	13.8	2.82
Dan Gadzuric	46	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-6	5	16.1	16.8	-0.69	14.4	15.3	-0.94
Calvin Booth	18	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	0	-7	18.3	16.0	2.25	17.5	14.2	3.29
Desmond Mason	68	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-4	1	16.5	16.3	0.28	14.9	14.8	0.03
Marcus Fizer	45	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-1	-5	16.8	16.1	0.69	15.3	14.4	0.94
Mo Williams	58	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-1	-5	16.1	17.2	-1.07	13.8	16.7	-2.82
Michael Redd	77	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-1	-5	16.2	18.2	-2.06	13.9	20.6	-6.70
Toni Kukoc	53	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.23	-7	0	-7	16.5	16.5	-0.05	15.6	13.8	1.75

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	78	75	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.32	6	1	5	15.0	14.2	0.77	16.5	16.3	0.19
Larry Hughes	69	68	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	-2	11	13.8	18.0	-4.19	16.8	15.5	1.33
Gilbert Arenas	83	82	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.27	5	2	3	14.6	16.7	-2.07	16.3	18.0	-1.70
Michael Ruffin	39	37	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.01	13	-6	19	14.4	15.2	-0.84	16.8	16.3	0.52
Kwame Brown	47	45	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.05	8	-1	9	15.6	14.0	1.59	17.3	15.7	1.57
Jared Jeffries	49	47	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.27	-2	9	-11	13.5	16.3	-2.79	15.6	17.4	-1.73
Juan Dixon	28	29	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.01	6	1	5	16.0	14.4	1.60	16.9	16.3	0.67
Etan Thomas	44	45	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.22	-3	10	-13	15.9	13.9	1.97	16.1	16.8	-0.71
Steve Blake	28	27	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.14	-7	14	-21	16.7	14.0	2.72	15.9	16.7	-0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.82,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 102, DET 113	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1	95.3%
DET 90, UTA 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.77,0.79,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
MIL 87, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.8,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.77,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.94,0.98,1	95.0%