NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	87		Excitement	6.0 [645]		MVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): +8.8%
Boston Celtics	92		Comeback	1.4 [924]		LVP	Tony Snell (MIL): -9.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jabari Parker	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	15	55%	0.09	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Tyler Zeller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	10	55%	0.03	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.03
Shabazz Muhammad	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.07	0.00	9	58%	0.03	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Eric Bledsoe	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	15	44%	-0.02	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.02
Thon Maker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	0.06	-0.03	0.07	21	51%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Matthew Dellavedova	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	0.00	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	13	50%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	10	57%	0.11	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	47%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	10	45%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.04	0.00	15	55%	0.13	6	-0.14	10	60%	-0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.03	-0.01	7	47%	0.07	5	-0.11	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	3.6	29.0	14.5	38.5	2.6	37.5	152.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +57.8%

BOS +8.8%

BOS +1.3%

MIL -19.8%

BOS +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	14.6	15.7	14.7	90.6	97.9	107.5
season	14.3	15.1		108.5	106.4
opponent	14.7	15.4		103.5	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.3	15.1	15.0	12.9	14.6
BOS	13.5	16.2	15.0	18.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shabazz Muhammad	21	18	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.26	8	-13	21	12.2	15.3	-3.09	16.8	15.5	1.30
Tyler Zeller	22	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	1	-7	14.7	14.6	0.10	16.0	15.6	0.42
Malcolm Brogdon	37	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-1	-3	14.2	14.8	-0.59	15.1	16.2	-1.10
Thon Maker	44	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.13	-4	-1	-3	16.2	13.3	2.87	16.4	15.2	1.20
Khris Middleton	81	79	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-8	11	14.7	14.3	0.32	16.6	11.1	5.54
Eric Bledsoe	66	65	-0.28	-0.23	-0.05	-0.28	0	-5	5	15.2	13.4	1.80	16.8	13.2	3.64
Matthew Dellavedova	35	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	2	-9	13.4	15.3	-1.85	12.6	17.5	-4.82
Tony Snell	26	24	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	7	-19	16.7	13.8	2.86	13.7	16.4	-2.76
Jabari Parker	66	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-4	3	14.3	15.2	-0.82	15.3	16.6	-1.34
Giannis Antetokounmpo	82	83	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	-3	1	14.1	17.7	-3.64	15.8	14.8	1.03

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaylen Brown	78	79	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.32	10	-5	15	15.2	18.4	-3.27	13.7	18.8	-5.13
Al Horford	77	77	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.35	4	1	3	15.6	16.1	-0.48	13.6	18.5	-4.89
Marcus Morris	47	50	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.17	6	-1	7	15.0	16.4	-1.36	15.9	13.2	2.70
Terry Rozier	67	68	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	1	3	16.1	14.8	1.33	13.8	16.5	-2.68
Marcus Smart	52	53	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.27	2	3	-1	14.2	17.6	-3.38	13.5	16.0	-2.53
Semi Ojeleye	62	62	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.32	-5	10	-15	16.9	13.5	3.37	13.7	16.2	-2.48
Shane Larkin	25	27	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	2	1	15.4	15.8	-0.44	16.9	13.7	3.13
Jayson Tatum	45	45	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	5	-5	17.2	14.4	2.79	17.1	12.4	4.76
Aron Baynes	17	19	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	4	-3	16.1	15.6	0.48	18.5	13.6	4.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.8,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.77,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 112, WAS 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.82,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,1	95.0%
LAL 91, HOU 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.72,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.9,1,1	94.4%
MIL 92, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.98,1,1	94.3%