NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	91		Excitement	5.1 [803]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +13.9%
Houston Rockets	102		Comeback	1.4 [954]		LVP	Cuttino Mobley (HOU): -8.8%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.01	0.04	3	125%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Devean George	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	16	54%	-0.05	0	0.00	14	36%	-0.11
Karl Malone	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	18	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	12	29%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	20	44%	-0.06	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	13	67%	0.16	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	10	62%	0.07	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	16	61%	0.07	3	-0.06	12	75%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	0.01	-0.00	20	48%	0.04	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.7	33.2	18.3	27.4	4.4	38.0	151.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +49.4%

HOU +1.7%

HOU +12.7%

LAL -14.2%

HOU +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	HOU	NBA	LAL	HOU	NBA
this game	15.4	16.6	15.7	101.1	113.3	100.5
season	15.4	16.5		102.8	98.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		97.1	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.9	14.9	16.2	13.8	15.4
HOU	16.6	16.4	15.2	18.3	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Cook	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	5.7	15.8	-10.09	5.0	17.0	-11.98
Luke Walton	26	25	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-11	11	14.0	16.0	-2.05	15.7	16.9	-1.24
Devean George	14	13	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.08	-2	-9	7	16.1	15.3	0.85	18.7	16.2	2.47
Derek Fisher	37	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.11	-1	-10	9	14.4	16.1	-1.68	16.8	16.4	0.32
Kareem Rush	33	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.08	-3	-8	5	14.5	16.0	-1.48	17.5	16.1	1.38
Rick Fox	47	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-7	3	15.8	15.0	0.76	16.3	16.8	-0.50
Gary Payton	58	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	0	-11	15.9	14.6	1.33	16.1	17.4	-1.34
Kobe Bryant	81	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	1	-13	15.6	14.0	1.58	16.3	19.6	-3.34
Karl Malone	71	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	0	-11	15.7	14.3	1.47	16.9	15.4	1.53
Shaquille O'Neal	80	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.15	-11	0	-11	16.0	10.9	5.09	17.0	12.8	4.22

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cuttino Mobley	83	83	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	1	9	16.3	19.6	-3.25	15.4	15.4	-0.01
Steve Francis	81	80	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-2	15	16.5	17.6	-1.09	15.5	14.5	1.04
Maurice Taylor	45	46	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.19	7	4	3	17.6	15.6	2.04	15.8	15.0	0.78
Yao Ming	80	80	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	4	3	16.7	15.9	0.76	15.3	16.6	-1.32
Jim Jackson	76	75	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	5	1	16.3	17.9	-1.52	15.2	16.6	-1.41
Kelvin Cato	53	51	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.05	10	1	9	16.1	17.3	-1.27	15.9	14.8	1.06
Bostjan Nachbar	23	25	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	7	-3	17.2	16.4	0.80	15.0	15.6	-0.64
Mark Jackson	9	10	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	13	-15	17.6	16.5	1.09	14.5	15.5	-1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.72,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 90, GSW 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.99,1	95.5%
MIL 92, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.98,1,1	95.4%
CLE 70, CHI 79	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.77,0.78,0.91,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	95.4%