NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	93		Excitement	6.4 [509]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +16.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	101		Comeback	1.8 [228]		LVP	Kendrick Perkins (OKC): -13.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.18	0.03	0.04	19	77%	0.33	4	-0.16	9	100%	0.07
Thabo Sefolosha	0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.02	5	100%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	17	46%	0.02	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Derek Fisher	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	10	42%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Reggie Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	9	20%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.06	0.01	16	65%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	8	65%	0.14	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Greg Stiemsma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	11	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	7	52%	0.01	1	-0.04	7	71%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.02	11	57%	0.05	2	-0.07	8	100%	0.04
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	8	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alexey Shved	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	29.3	15.4	27.4	2.5	34.3	134.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +17.4%

OKC -6.0%

MIN +13.3%

MIN +19.3%

MIN +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIN	NBA	OKC	MIN	NBA
this game	15.9	15.8	15.4	103.3	109.8	104.1
season	14.8	15.6		109.3	101.3
opponent	14.9	15.5		103.4	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	17.0	16.1	16.0	14.3	15.9
MIN	16.5	15.2	15.3	16.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hasheem Thabeet	10	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-4	0	19.7	15.4	4.32	14.6	15.9	-1.34
Nick Collison	35	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-5	2	16.7	15.3	1.31	15.6	15.9	-0.33
Serge Ibaka	69	71	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-9	10	15.2	18.1	-2.92	15.5	16.7	-1.13
Thabo Sefolosha	53	55	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.14	-2	-6	4	15.3	16.7	-1.44	15.5	16.2	-0.66
Derek Fisher	24	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-3	-2	17.6	15.2	2.36	16.7	15.5	1.20
Kendrick Perkins	46	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	-3	-2	16.1	15.6	0.56	16.6	14.8	1.80
Russell Westbrook	61	63	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-5	2	15.0	17.6	-2.55	16.0	15.4	0.55
Kevin Martin	37	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-2	-4	16.7	15.3	1.44	16.2	15.5	0.66
Reggie Jackson	37	38	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	0	-8	16.8	15.2	1.67	15.0	16.4	-1.35
Kevin Durant	78	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.31	-5	-3	-2	15.1	20.8	-5.74	15.7	16.2	-0.52

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Pekovic	71	69	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-2	12	15.6	16.6	-1.01	15.3	17.8	-2.49
Chase Budinger	45	43	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.19	9	-1	10	15.2	16.3	-1.12	16.8	15.0	1.75
Ricky Rubio	59	57	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	4	0	15.8	15.8	-0.04	15.0	17.3	-2.29
Jose Juan Barea	43	41	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.13	8	0	8	16.3	15.3	0.96	16.4	15.4	1.03
Dante Cunningham	36	35	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	5	-2	16.2	15.6	0.61	16.8	15.3	1.50
Luke Ridnour	54	54	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	6	-4	15.7	16.0	-0.31	15.7	16.0	-0.29
Andrei Kirilenko	63	62	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	7	-6	15.4	16.7	-1.36	15.1	17.5	-2.34
Derrick Williams	49	48	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.03	3	5	-2	16.1	15.5	0.62	15.6	16.2	-0.63
Alexey Shved	19	20	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	6	-4	16.4	15.6	0.72	16.8	15.6	1.21
Greg Stiemsma	21	21	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	10	-12	16.6	15.6	1.01	17.8	15.3	2.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.88,0.96,0.93,0.84,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 98, DET 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.99,1	93.9%
MIN 85, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.77,0.83,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.97,1,1	93.8%
HOU 91, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.98,1	93.6%