NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	112		Excitement	8.6 [176]		MVP	Kevin Seraphin (WAS): +29.4%
Denver Nuggets	108		Comeback	5.5 [46]		LVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): -16.4%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Seraphin	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.29	0.09	0.20	-0.00	11	69%	0.32	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Bradley Beal	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.18	0.10	0.07	-0.01	13	74%	0.25	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.03
Trevor Ariza	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	10	67%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Martell Webster	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	7	59%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
A.J. Price	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Crawford	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	57%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Emeka Okafor	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	71%	0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.02	-0.07	0.06	0.02	9	58%	0.15	6	-0.17	6	100%	0.04
Jan Vesely	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Booker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Nene	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	8	33%	-0.07	3	-0.07	5	20%	-0.06

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24	0.24	0.11	0.14	0.00	10	74%	0.29	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.13
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11	0.11	0.14	-0.03	-0.00	16	81%	0.29	5	-0.18	4	75%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.03	-0.02	14	53%	0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	7	33%	0.00	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Andre Iguodala	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.02	-0.02	4	14%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.04
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.03	-0.12	0.01	16	43%	-0.12	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	1.8	27.0	15.4	23.7	1.8	37.4	133.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +40.6%

WAS +6.4%

WAS +14.1%

DEN -13.6%

WAS +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DEN	NBA	WAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	13.5	15.4	112.0	109.1	104.1
season	15.1	14.4		98.8	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.7		104.0	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.7	14.5	16.2	17.7	15.4
DEN	14.6	13.2	13.8	12.3	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Wall	56	53	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.38	15	-11	26	14.5	16.7	-2.16	12.9	14.1	-1.21
Kevin Seraphin	54	51	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.34	11	-7	18	16.3	14.5	1.76	13.6	13.4	0.25
Jordan Crawford	39	38	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	-7	18	13.7	16.6	-2.84	13.2	13.6	-0.40
Trevor Booker	35	35	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.19	8	-4	12	16.0	15.2	0.80	14.1	13.2	0.89
Trevor Ariza	56	56	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.41	-1	5	-6	16.5	14.1	2.47	12.6	14.6	-1.98
Martell Webster	43	42	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	0	4	14.0	16.5	-2.50	14.2	12.9	1.27
Nene	59	60	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.21	-4	8	-12	15.5	15.3	0.18	13.3	13.7	-0.34
Bradley Beal	64	65	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.20	-6	10	-16	16.1	14.3	1.83	13.5	13.4	0.11
Jan Vesely	7	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	4	-4	12.3	15.7	-3.40	10.8	13.7	-2.82
Emeka Okafor	43	44	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.00	-7	11	-18	15.0	15.8	-0.75	13.8	13.2	0.60
A.J. Price	44	45	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.00	-11	15	-26	16.7	14.5	2.16	14.3	12.8	1.51

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenneth Faried	55	52	0.31	-0.81	1.12	-0.04	12	-16	28	14.2	12.5	1.69	15.2	15.7	-0.50
Danilo Gallinari	69	69	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.31	10	-14	24	13.2	14.1	-0.93	16.9	12.2	4.67
Kosta Koufos	50	53	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.13	2	-6	8	13.7	13.3	0.35	16.2	14.6	1.57
Andre Iguodala	63	63	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-3	2	13.9	12.7	1.20	14.7	16.7	-1.95
Corey Brewer	59	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.12	-8	4	-12	13.7	13.1	0.56	14.8	16.4	-1.58
Ty Lawson	75	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	1	-6	13.3	14.0	-0.68	15.4	15.6	-0.25
Wilson Chandler	41	44	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	8	-20	13.5	13.4	0.09	15.0	15.8	-0.80
JaVale McGee	30	31	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.20	-12	8	-20	13.1	13.6	-0.50	14.3	16.0	-1.68
Andre Miller	53	53	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.51	-6	2	-8	12.5	14.6	-2.06	15.8	15.1	0.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.7,0.63,0.58,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.85,0.84,0.75,0.78,0.62,0.38,0.33,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.22,0.06,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 102, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.74,0.65,0.78,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.12,0.06,0.02,0	91.5%
TOR 85, CHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.66,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.28,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.08,0	91.3%
POR 104, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.43,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.15,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0	91.2%