NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	85		Excitement	5.9 [646]		MVP	Greivis Vasquez (TOR): +11.8%
Chicago Bulls	79		Comeback	4.3 [279]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -15.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greivis Vasquez	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	-0.00	0.11	-0.00	9	50%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	54%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.04	0.01	10	58%	0.10	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	7	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Tyler Hansbrough	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Terrence Ross	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	4	56%	0.03	3	-0.09	8	87%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	12	35%	-0.03	4	-0.11	7	71%	-0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	8	72%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.04	13	46%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	13	47%	0.04	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.03
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	10	29%	-0.06	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	15	46%	0.01	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	-0.00	8	22%	-0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	0.01	9	20%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.3	27.9	14.8	26.4	1.8	42.6	142.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +40.1%

TOR +3.1%

TOR +1.7%

TOR +3.8%

TOR +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHI	NBA	TOR	CHI	NBA
this game	14.8	16.0	15.1	90.4	84.9	105.2
season	15.9	16.3		107.2	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.1		99.6	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.5	17.1	13.3	12.8	14.8
CHI	14.8	16.4	17.4	15.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greivis Vasquez	30	29	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.30	16	-10	26	16.0	14.3	1.70	16.1	16.0	0.15
Patrick Patterson	44	44	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.27	14	-8	22	15.0	14.6	0.45	17.0	15.1	1.90
Jonas Valanciunas	75	73	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-2	10	14.9	14.6	0.29	15.9	16.4	-0.57
John Salmons	62	63	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.40	2	4	-2	14.4	15.5	-1.10	15.7	16.7	-1.03
DeMar DeRozan	71	68	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.33	4	2	2	14.7	15.0	-0.31	16.3	15.2	1.09
Terrence Ross	56	55	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.09	6	0	6	15.1	14.4	0.69	16.0	16.0	0.04
Amir Johnson	56	56	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.02	-4	10	-14	14.4	15.4	-0.94	15.6	16.6	-1.03
Tyler Hansbrough	12	13	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	12	-18	16.4	14.6	1.84	15.1	16.1	-1.07
Kyle Lowry	64	64	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.02	-10	16	-26	14.3	16.0	-1.70	16.0	16.1	-0.15

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	14	14	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.02	8	-14	22	17.3	15.8	1.51	16.6	14.5	2.07
Kirk Hinrich	57	59	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-1	-4	15.1	17.5	-2.40	13.9	16.4	-2.49
D.J. Augustin	36	35	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-5	4	17.5	15.1	2.40	16.4	13.9	2.49
Luol Deng	65	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-4	2	15.6	17.0	-1.38	14.8	14.7	0.08
Jimmy Butler	75	76	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-2	-2	15.8	16.7	-0.90	14.1	18.0	-3.95
Taj Gibson	59	59	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-5	4	15.6	16.6	-1.02	14.5	15.3	-0.85
Carlos Boozer	46	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	4	-14	16.2	15.8	0.47	15.3	14.3	1.06
Mike Dunleavy	46	46	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	0	-6	16.9	15.1	1.72	16.0	13.6	2.38
Joakim Noah	67	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.28	-9	3	-12	15.9	16.3	-0.37	14.4	16.0	-1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.66,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.28,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, MIA 81	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.59,0.73,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.43,0.27,0.11,0.24,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.08,0	92.7%
BKN 104, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.49,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.1,0.02,0.02,0,0	92.3%
PHI 106, MIA 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.72,0.69,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.15,0.22,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.27,0	92.0%