NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	106		Excitement	8.9 [163]		MVP	JJ Redick (PHI): +22.8%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	6.3 [296]		LVP	Joel Embiid (PHI): -28.9%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0.23	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.23	0.08	0.14	-0.01	18	57%	0.25	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Marco Belinelli	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	7	59%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ben Simmons	0.04	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04	-0.09	0.11	-0.01	13	57%	0.22	7	-0.18	4	25%	-0.05
Ersan Ilyasova	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	10	43%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04
Robert Covington	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	5	83%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Justin Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dario Saric	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	13	39%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Joel Embiid	-0.29	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.26,-0.23,-0.26,-0.29,-0.29,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.29,-0.29	-0.18	-0.09	0.01	11	40%	-0.04	8	-0.25	13	77%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,0.04,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.09	0.00	22	50%	0.17	2	-0.06	6	83%	-0.02
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	67%	0.08	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	62%	0.09	4	-0.10	3	33%	-0.03
James Johnson	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	12	52%	0.10	3	-0.11	5	80%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	11	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	9	35%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.09
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	19	48%	-0.01	5	-0.16	4	25%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	3.4	37.8	15.6	34.5	3.6	38.6	162.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +16.0%

PHI +24.9%

PHI +27.1%

MIA -18.6%

PHI +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	13.5	13.0	14.7	98.1	92.7	107.5
season	13.9	15.1		108.1	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.7		105.8	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	12.2	11.9	15.0	15.3	13.5
MIA	12.6	11.7	13.2	14.7	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	49	51	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.22	16	-12	28	14.2	12.9	1.30	13.6	12.4	1.18
JJ Redick	73	74	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.38	7	-3	10	13.6	13.3	0.28	13.5	11.9	1.63
Ben Simmons	87	88	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.37	3	1	2	14.0	11.2	2.77	13.0	13.0	0.00
Robert Covington	64	66	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	2	0	12.5	14.9	-2.46	13.1	12.7	0.34
Marco Belinelli	63	63	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	1	2	13.7	13.1	0.62	12.2	14.0	-1.86
Joel Embiid	71	74	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.30	-5	9	-14	13.4	13.6	-0.15	12.8	13.4	-0.60
Amir Johnson	25	25	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.06	7	-3	10	12.1	13.9	-1.81	14.2	12.6	1.56
T.J. McConnell	22	23	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	3	-2	10.8	14.2	-3.39	13.0	12.9	0.11
Justin Anderson	19	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	7	-10	14.3	13.3	0.96	13.2	12.9	0.31
Dario Saric	67	67	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.15	-11	15	-26	14.1	12.4	1.67	12.2	14.2	-2.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	30	29	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.07	3	-7	10	12.7	13.0	-0.35	13.7	13.4	0.25
Hassan Whiteside	59	58	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.15	6	-10	16	12.8	13.1	-0.30	14.4	12.4	1.92
Kelly Olynyk	22	22	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	-1	-2	11.9	13.2	-1.36	12.2	13.8	-1.62
Bam Adebayo	40	37	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	2	-8	13.6	12.6	1.05	11.7	14.4	-2.69
Justise Winslow	44	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.21	-1	-3	2	12.7	13.1	-0.34	14.5	12.8	1.60
Josh Richardson	79	78	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.45	6	-10	16	13.3	12.1	1.19	13.5	13.3	0.19
Wayne Ellington	51	50	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	2	-8	12.4	13.4	-0.98	13.1	13.8	-0.77
Goran Dragic	85	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	0	-4	12.8	13.5	-0.73	13.8	12.3	1.52
James Johnson	81	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	6	-16	13.0	13.0	-0.01	13.7	12.8	0.93
Dwyane Wade	59	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.41	-5	1	-6	13.6	12.2	1.34	12.9	14.2	-1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.72,0.69,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.15,0.22,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 104, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.54,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.23,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.16,0	93.5%
TOR 85, CHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.66,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.28,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.08,0	92.0%
MIL 78, CHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.09,0	92.0%