NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	78		Excitement	7.3 [364]		MVP	John Henson (MIL): +27.8%
Chicago Bulls	74		Comeback	4.8 [109]		LVP	Carlos Boozer (CHI): -28.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Henson	0.28	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.28,0.28	0.08	0.21	0.01	17	66%	0.35	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.02
Khris Middleton	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	6	53%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Ekpe Udoh	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Miroslav Raduljica	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Wolters	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.01	-0.02	12	26%	-0.04	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Knight	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2	-0.16	-0.05	-0.01	23	40%	0.00	6	-0.21	2	100%	0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.13	0.12	-0.00	15	67%	0.28	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Erik Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.09	6	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.12	-0.01	14	46%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	7	14%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.18	-0.09	-0.01	10	5%	-0.23	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.04
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.23,-0.22,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.28	-0.28	-0.15	-0.14	-0.00	23	42%	-0.11	6	-0.17	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	26.6	17.3	23.4	1.8	36.4	133.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +45.7%

MIL +10.9%

CHI -4.5%

CHI -0.1%

CHI -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.5	16.2	15.1	88.6	84.1	105.2
season	15.7	16.3		101.4	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.1		99.6	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.0	16.7	14.8	18.8	16.5
CHI	18.3	14.6	15.2	17.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khris Middleton	59	59	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.36	13	-9	22	16.1	17.3	-1.29	16.9	14.9	2.07
Brandon Knight	80	81	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	1	2	17.0	11.4	5.61	15.9	20.4	-4.54
O.J. Mayo	80	82	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.39	3	1	2	17.0	11.4	5.61	15.9	20.7	-4.74
Ersan Ilyasova	56	55	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	1	2	16.2	17.0	-0.87	16.9	15.2	1.66
John Henson	77	77	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	-1	6	15.7	21.8	-6.10	16.0	17.9	-1.90
Ekpe Udoh	39	41	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	2	0	18.9	14.5	4.44	16.3	16.2	0.17
Nate Wolters	27	26	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.10	2	2	0	13.9	17.6	-3.68	15.7	16.5	-0.74
Miroslav Raduljica	3	2	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	7	-10	15.3	16.5	-1.18	12.5	16.3	-3.84
Giannis Antetokounmpo	19	17	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.07	-8	12	-20	16.3	16.5	-0.27	17.2	16.0	1.22

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	26	26	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.09	-4	0	-4	14.9	16.8	-1.94	15.4	16.9	-1.55
Marquis Teague	39	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.23	5	-9	14	17.3	15.4	1.81	17.3	15.9	1.40
Erik Murphy	18	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	1	-6	18.5	15.7	2.83	15.6	16.7	-1.03
Carlos Boozer	67	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-7	10	15.9	17.5	-1.67	16.8	15.4	1.35
Mike Dunleavy	81	82	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-4	4	15.8	21.3	-5.47	16.8	12.3	4.45
Kirk Hinrich	74	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	3	-10	15.9	18.4	-2.51	16.9	14.7	2.19
Taj Gibson	64	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-4	4	16.8	14.7	2.18	16.8	15.5	1.29
Tony Snell	71	71	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.31	-12	8	-20	16.4	15.7	0.67	15.3	21.4	-6.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 101, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.84,0.84,0.89,0.81,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.7,0.57,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.33,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.04,0	92.4%
SAC 108, SAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.8,0.81,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.18,0.09,0.02,0.03,0,0,0	92.0%
MIL 97, WAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.77,0.89,0.88,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.54,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.16,0.1,0	92.0%