NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	108		Excitement	6.2 [562]		MVP	Corliss Williamson (SAC): +26.6%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	4.4 [57]		LVP	Lawrence Funderburke (SAC): -14.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corliss Williamson	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.17	0.10	0.00	11	82%	0.27	0	0.00	12	100%	0.07
Jason Williams	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.02	0.12	-0.02	10	82%	0.34	6	-0.18	2	100%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.01	11	83%	0.12	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Darrick Martin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	8	62%	0.03	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Tyrone Corbin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bill Wennington	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	10	36%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Scot Pollard	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	0.01	-0.01	12	26%	-0.11	1	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Lawrence Funderburke	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	9	33%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.02	0.00	5	110%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	6	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	22	56%	0.05	5	-0.15	6	100%	0.02
David Robinson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.05	0.04	17	52%	-0.02	2	-0.10	10	90%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.0	25.8	15.8	24.2	1.8	29.3	122.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +43.6%

SAS -6.4%

SAC +5.1%

SAC +7.8%

SAS -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	14.8	16.0	15.2	114.9	105.4	101.7
season	13.8	15.5		102.9	101.6
opponent	15.4	14.7		95.9	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	11.2	18.0	13.4	17.1	14.8
SAS	18.1	13.9	15.4	16.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	82	80	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.13	24	-14	38	14.0	20.2	-6.12	16.1	14.9	1.23
Jason Williams	82	80	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.13	24	-14	38	14.0	20.2	-6.12	16.1	14.9	1.23
Scot Pollard	74	74	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.20	14	-4	18	14.7	15.2	-0.47	16.4	14.5	1.83
Vlade Divac	62	62	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.00	14	-4	18	13.6	17.1	-3.48	16.2	15.5	0.79
Tony Delk	38	37	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.36	1	9	-8	17.6	13.0	4.61	15.9	16.1	-0.19
Lawrence Funderburke	45	44	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	9	-8	16.0	13.7	2.29	15.1	16.8	-1.64
Peja Stojakovic	56	56	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.15	9	1	8	13.0	17.6	-4.61	16.1	15.9	0.19
Bill Wennington	7	6	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.10	-9	19	-28	18.7	14.5	4.20	15.0	16.0	-1.05
Darrick Martin	12	13	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.08	-14	24	-38	20.2	14.0	6.12	14.9	16.1	-1.23
Tyrone Corbin	12	13	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.08	-14	24	-38	20.2	14.0	6.12	14.9	16.1	-1.23

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	45	44	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-11	12	14.0	17.8	-3.75	15.8	14.0	1.86
Jerome Kersey	52	52	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-13	16	15.4	16.7	-1.22	16.3	13.0	3.22
Avery Johnson	61	61	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-1	-8	15.9	16.1	-0.22	12.8	18.5	-5.68
Terry Porter	39	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.14	-2	-8	6	15.7	16.2	-0.45	17.3	13.1	4.28
Jaren Jackson	54	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	-2	-6	16.2	15.7	0.45	13.1	17.3	-4.28
Antonio Daniels	32	33	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-9	8	16.1	15.9	0.22	18.5	12.8	5.68
David Robinson	66	67	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	-1	-8	16.7	14.1	2.58	14.5	15.7	-1.23
Sean Elliott	41	42	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	3	-16	16.7	15.4	1.22	13.0	16.3	-3.22
Tim Duncan	75	77	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.29	-12	2	-14	16.5	13.9	2.59	14.6	16.0	-1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.8,0.81,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.18,0.09,0.02,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 97, NOH 88	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.26,0.15,0.07,0.15,0.07,0,0,0	93.0%
PHX 106, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.67,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.42,0.31,0.12,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	93.0%
SAC 103, MIL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.37,0.17,0.19,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	92.9%