NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	103		Excitement	6.2 [535]		MVP	Billy Owens (SAC): +19.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	92		Comeback	3.8 [140]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -23.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Billy Owens	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.18	0.04	0.02	21	69%	0.19	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tyus Edney	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.04	0.03	8	71%	0.13	3	-0.11	5	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Gamble	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	59%	0.01	2	-0.02	7	29%	-0.05
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.1,-0.13,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	22	54%	0.03	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.03
Kevin Salvadori	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.24,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.18	-0.06	-0.05	10	33%	-0.10	3	-0.10	10	40%	-0.05

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	71%	0.08	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
David Wood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuonzo Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.01	20	48%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Armen Gilliam	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	11	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	6	43%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	0.05	11	52%	-0.04	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.18	-0.07	-0.01	24	33%	-0.18	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	30.2	15.7	23.5	1.7	29.2	124.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +60.0%

MIL -10.7%

SAC +14.7%

MIL -15.0%

SAC +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIL	NBA	SAC	MIL	NBA
this game	16.3	16.2	15.6	117.0	103.4	104.4
season	15.4	16.0		102.4	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		106.0	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.5	18.4	14.0	16.7	16.3
MIL	15.5	17.6	18.0	13.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Smith	77	79	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.16	18	-7	25	16.0	18.5	-2.43	15.5	22.0	-6.52
Olden Polynice	83	84	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.18	16	-5	21	16.1	19.6	-3.47	15.9	22.0	-6.13
Billy Owens	82	84	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.14	16	-5	21	16.2	18.3	-2.15	16.0	19.8	-3.80
Mitch Richmond	81	82	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	0	11	16.1	18.4	-2.28	16.1	17.0	-0.85
Tyus Edney	58	55	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	3	5	15.7	17.6	-1.88	15.5	17.4	-1.99
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	30	34	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.03	3	8	-5	17.6	15.7	1.88	17.4	15.5	1.99
Kevin Gamble	13	12	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.05	-5	16	-21	18.4	16.0	2.41	18.2	15.9	2.26
Kevin Salvadori	5	5	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.01	-5	16	-21	19.6	16.1	3.47	22.0	15.9	6.13
Corliss Williamson	11	10	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.02	-7	18	-25	18.5	16.0	2.43	22.0	15.5	6.52

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elliot Perry	40	42	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.10	5	-16	21	14.6	17.6	-2.98	15.2	17.4	-2.22
David Wood	4	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-10	9	7.5	16.6	-9.12	11.5	16.6	-5.06
Cuonzo Martin	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-11	11	9.0	16.8	-7.83	12.1	16.7	-4.55
Ray Allen	55	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-9	7	16.7	15.4	1.34	16.2	16.5	-0.35
Armen Gilliam	61	62	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-9	7	16.3	16.1	0.16	15.5	18.3	-2.75
Johnny Newman	53	55	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-10	9	15.9	16.7	-0.85	17.2	14.9	2.27
Chucky Brown	21	19	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-4	-3	17.5	15.8	1.71	19.4	15.5	3.94
Glenn Robinson	73	71	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	2	-15	16.9	13.0	3.92	16.4	16.0	0.41
Sherman Douglas	49	46	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.08	-16	5	-21	17.6	14.6	2.98	17.4	15.2	2.22
Vin Baker	82	81	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.12	-18	7	-25	16.1	17.1	-1.01	16.3	17.0	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.37,0.17,0.19,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 108, SAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.8,0.81,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.18,0.09,0.02,0.03,0,0,0	92.9%
LAC 108, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.72,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.05,0.02,0,0,0	92.5%
IND 94, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.03,0,0	92.5%