NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	89		Excitement	6.8 [444]		MVP	Zach Randolph (POR): +15.8%
Miami Heat	81		Comeback	4.8 [103]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -21.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.05	-0.01	17	65%	0.21	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.00	0.07	0.01	11	62%	0.14	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	12	65%	0.10	2	-0.05	7	71%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	40%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Qyntel Woods	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omar Cook	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	8	45%	-0.02	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Ruben Patterson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	7	44%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Darius Miles	-0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	8	37%	-0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	75%	0.09	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	10	40%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	21	54%	0.02	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.03
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	7	37%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	11	44%	-0.06	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.22,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.23,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21	-0.21	-0.17	-0.06	-0.01	15	35%	-0.08	4	-0.14	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.6	26.3	15.8	25.7	2.6	36.6	133.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +44.2%

MIA -2.9%

MIA -5.5%

POR +12.6%

POR +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	17.6	15.7	15.7	103.5	93.1	100.5
season	17.1	16.2		101.5	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.7		98.8	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.9	18.0	20.0	17.0	17.6
MIA	15.4	16.3	17.0	14.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	58	58	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.26	11	-3	14	17.7	17.3	0.40	16.2	14.7	1.53
Damon Stoudamire	68	67	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.23	10	-2	12	17.7	17.1	0.61	16.0	14.7	1.25
Ruben Patterson	55	56	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.26	7	1	6	17.4	17.9	-0.49	14.7	17.6	-2.95
Dan Dickau	12	14	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-3	14	16.4	17.8	-1.37	13.5	16.1	-2.64
Derek Anderson	74	74	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	0	8	17.3	19.2	-1.83	16.3	12.5	3.73
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	47	48	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	1	6	17.1	18.2	-1.03	15.5	16.0	-0.47
Zach Randolph	61	62	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.06	1	7	-6	18.3	15.8	2.47	16.2	14.4	1.79
Darius Miles	37	37	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	10	-12	17.1	18.0	-0.95	15.9	15.6	0.36
Qyntel Woods	9	9	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.02	-5	13	-18	19.4	17.4	2.07	14.0	15.9	-1.91
Omar Cook	9	10	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.05	-8	16	-24	18.4	17.5	0.95	14.3	15.9	-1.60

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	51	50	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.11	-4	-4	0	16.7	14.3	2.35	17.6	17.6	-0.03
Eddie Jones	63	63	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-5	2	16.3	14.2	2.13	17.7	17.2	0.51
Lamar Odom	73	72	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-5	2	16.1	13.5	2.64	17.6	17.4	0.28
Udonis Haslem	27	25	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-6	4	13.9	16.5	-2.64	17.6	17.6	0.07
Rasual Butler	27	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-6	4	13.7	16.6	-2.91	16.6	18.1	-1.46
Dwyane Wade	73	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.28	-2	-6	4	16.0	14.1	1.87	18.0	15.0	3.01
Brian Grant	73	74	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.34	-9	1	-10	16.0	14.0	2.04	17.6	17.2	0.40
Rafer Alston	48	45	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.35	-15	7	-22	14.5	17.3	-2.80	17.1	18.1	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.59,0.73,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.43,0.27,0.11,0.24,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 85, CHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.66,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.28,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.08,0	92.7%
IND 94, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.03,0,0	91.8%
MIL 78, CHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.09,0	91.8%