NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	103		Excitement	4.8 [700]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +10.4%
Denver Nuggets	90		Comeback	1.5 [600]		LVP	Timofey Mozgov (DEN): -10.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.02	15	63%	0.12	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	-0.00	8	69%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.03	11	75%	0.10	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	43%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lazar Hayward	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.00	7	31%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kendrick Perkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Russell Westbrook	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	17	55%	0.07	7	-0.14	8	87%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.01	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.03	0.04	12	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julyan Stone	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.03	9	77%	0.10	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.03	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	11	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	8	25%	-0.09	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	9	45%	-0.01	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.5	32.4	16.4	28.5	2.5	27.2	133.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +44.6%

OKC +6.0%

DEN -7.8%

OKC +7.9%

DEN -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	14.8	15.6	107.3	95.7	102.8
season	14.7	14.5		107.9	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.8		104.5	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.9	13.4	15.5	19.8	15.5
DEN	16.1	12.7	18.0	13.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	43	43	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.09	17	-4	21	14.6	16.2	-1.67	16.1	13.8	2.33
Reggie Jackson	41	40	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	0	13	18.0	13.6	4.40	13.4	15.9	-2.40
Thabo Sefolosha	23	24	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.09	15	-2	17	15.4	15.5	-0.06	17.3	14.0	3.31
Kendrick Perkins	42	43	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.04	13	0	13	14.3	16.4	-2.16	16.6	13.3	3.31
Kevin Durant	71	70	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	2	9	14.7	17.7	-3.03	15.3	13.4	1.90
Nazr Mohammed	31	29	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.06	10	3	7	15.7	15.4	0.39	13.5	15.4	-1.90
James Harden	68	66	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	14	-15	16.1	14.1	1.99	14.1	16.6	-2.48
Russell Westbrook	70	70	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	11	-9	14.7	17.5	-2.77	15.2	13.8	1.39
Nick Collison	52	49	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	13	-13	15.8	15.0	0.80	13.9	15.9	-1.99
Daequan Cook	33	31	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	13	-13	15.7	15.4	0.29	14.1	15.2	-1.14
Royal Ivey	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	18	-23	19.5	15.4	4.11	7.5	15.0	-7.49
Lazar Hayward	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	18	-23	19.5	15.4	4.11	7.0	14.9	-7.91
Cole Aldrich	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	18	-23	19.5	15.4	4.11	7.5	15.0	-7.49

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Hamilton	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-18	23	7.5	15.0	-7.49	19.5	15.4	4.11
Julyan Stone	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-18	23	7.5	15.0	-7.49	19.5	15.4	4.11
Chris Andersen	30	30	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-14	15	14.9	14.8	0.15	14.3	16.0	-1.72
Arron Afflalo	61	62	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-12	11	14.3	15.8	-1.43	15.0	16.4	-1.44
Kosta Koufos	30	31	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-12	11	12.5	15.9	-3.47	17.7	14.4	3.29
Corey Brewer	18	21	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.05	-5	-8	3	14.2	15.0	-0.75	15.9	15.4	0.54
Kenneth Faried	40	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	-6	-1	13.6	15.8	-2.18	14.3	16.4	-2.13
Danilo Gallinari	65	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-8	3	15.4	13.4	2.00	14.6	17.2	-2.52
Ty Lawson	71	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	-5	-3	14.5	15.9	-1.38	15.7	14.8	0.97
Timofey Mozgov	24	24	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.07	-11	-2	-9	17.0	14.1	2.91	14.6	15.8	-1.14
Rudy Fernandez	33	34	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.00	-9	-4	-5	15.3	14.6	0.78	16.3	15.0	1.26
Andre Miller	46	47	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	1	-15	15.7	14.0	1.61	16.6	14.4	2.10
Al Harrington	48	49	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.05	-15	2	-17	16.2	13.4	2.82	15.5	15.4	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 95, DEN 82	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.21,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.11,0.09,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.6%
NOH 95, LAC 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
IND 106, ORL 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.43,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%