NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	95		Excitement	4.9 [853]		MVP	Chris Webber (DET): +16.4%
Denver Nuggets	82		Comeback	1.3 [713]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -22.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Webber	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.00	11	77%	0.16	1	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.03	10	45%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	13	52%	0.09	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.02
Carlos Delfino	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.01	17	41%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.19	-0.03	-0.10	17	37%	-0.01	6	-0.10	4	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	6	85%	0.10	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	13	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Evans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	13	49%	-0.02	2	-0.03	13	62%	-0.05
Nene	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	4	70%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.04	0.03	10	35%	-0.10	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	21	35%	-0.09	7	-0.13	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.7	31.5	16.6	27.3	1.7	29.7	135.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +34.7%

DET +5.9%

DEN -3.9%

DET +14.6%

DEN -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.1	15.4	100.0	87.2	104.5
season	16.8	14.0		106.1	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.7		104.5	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.7	15.1	15.1	19.7	16.3
DEN	13.1	15.6	15.5	12.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	75	75	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-2	17	16.5	15.6	0.91	14.3	13.7	0.52
Chauncey Billups	72	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-2	17	16.3	16.3	0.07	13.9	14.9	-0.97
Richard Hamilton	82	81	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	-2	17	16.3	16.5	-0.26	14.5	12.0	2.49
Rasheed Wallace	64	63	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.04	14	-1	15	17.4	14.1	3.34	14.7	13.1	1.52
Chris Webber	62	63	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.04	14	-1	15	15.8	17.3	-1.56	13.9	14.6	-0.74
Antonio McDyess	49	47	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	15	-17	16.1	16.6	-0.48	14.0	14.3	-0.26
Carlos Delfino	29	28	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	16	-19	16.1	16.4	-0.36	14.2	14.1	0.14
Ronald Murray	27	25	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	16	-19	16.1	16.4	-0.29	13.2	14.5	-1.24
Jason Maxiell	15	15	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	13	-13	14.7	16.6	-1.96	13.5	14.3	-0.81

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Evans	15	16	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.01	-1	-12	11	17.2	13.6	3.63	14.8	16.6	-1.81
Linas Kleiza	47	47	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.07	1	-14	15	13.9	14.4	-0.60	17.1	15.6	1.48
Marcus Camby	60	60	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.12	-2	-11	9	13.5	15.3	-1.84	16.7	15.6	1.13
DerMarr Johnson	23	23	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.04	-10	-3	-7	13.5	14.4	-0.89	14.6	16.9	-2.31
Steve Blake	64	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.17	-5	-8	3	14.1	14.3	-0.22	17.3	14.1	3.19
Nene	58	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	-4	-5	14.7	13.3	1.41	16.3	16.3	0.04
Eduardo Najera	45	48	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.11	-9	-4	-5	13.2	15.0	-1.78	15.1	17.6	-2.49
Allen Iverson	83	84	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.13	-12	-1	-11	14.1	14.4	-0.24	16.4	15.4	1.08
Carmelo Anthony	75	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.04	-18	5	-23	14.7	12.0	2.69	16.1	17.0	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.21,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.11,0.09,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 103, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
POR 95, VAN 76	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.28,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
CHH 103, CLE 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.19,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%