NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	113		Excitement	2.0 [1047]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +12.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	90		Comeback	1.1 [847]		LVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): -6.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.00	-0.03	24	53%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.00	0.01	13	69%	0.10	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.03	19	55%	0.08	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	9	67%	0.08	3	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	6	67%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.08	0.00	0.09	9	72%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.03	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	0.00	0.08	13	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	10	100%	0.02
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	0.00	0.08	14	63%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	9	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	36%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	8	33%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	8	41%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	0.05	10	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.12	-0.00	-0.06	10	14%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.8	27.4	15.7	20.5	2.6	25.7	116.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +51.4%

MIL -0.2%

CHI +4.8%

MIL -6.1%

CHI +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.9	15.6	117.7	94.7	102.8
season	16.0	14.6		104.7	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.9		103.4	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.3	14.5	15.7	17.8	15.2
MIL	15.5	14.9	13.7	15.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	83	80	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.13	19	4	15	15.1	16.2	-1.17	15.4	12.3	3.17
Derrick Rose	72	70	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.19	18	5	13	14.9	16.3	-1.43	14.7	15.7	-1.01
Taj Gibson	34	33	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	13	-3	14.4	15.7	-1.34	16.4	14.2	2.19
Joakim Noah	65	64	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.16	16	7	9	15.2	15.3	-0.06	14.3	16.3	-2.06
Kyle Korver	56	53	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	12	-1	14.9	15.6	-0.70	15.2	14.6	0.61
Ronnie Brewer	38	39	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.10	11	12	-1	15.2	15.2	-0.06	14.8	15.0	-0.24
Carlos Boozer	47	47	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.09	9	14	-5	14.7	15.7	-0.93	14.2	15.7	-1.48
CJ Watson	39	39	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.06	8	15	-7	17.1	13.9	3.17	15.6	14.5	1.11
Omer Asik	23	24	0.14	0.35	-0.21	0.06	3	20	-17	15.9	15.0	0.86	16.0	14.6	1.37
Jimmy Butler	19	20	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.12	8	15	-7	14.5	15.4	-0.93	13.3	15.4	-2.01
Brian Scalabrine	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	22	-21	24.0	15.0	8.97	12.0	15.0	-3.03
John Lucas III	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	22	-21	24.0	15.0	8.97	12.0	15.0	-3.03

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Brockman	18	18	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.03	-1	-22	21	14.9	14.9	0.01	18.9	14.4	4.52
Jon Leuer	35	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-17	11	15.8	14.4	1.32	16.2	14.6	1.65
Ersan Ilyasova	30	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-19	15	16.2	14.3	1.89	14.2	15.7	-1.51
Mike Dunleavy	40	40	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.08	-10	-13	3	15.5	14.5	0.93	16.1	14.6	1.55
Carlos Delfino	37	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.16	-13	-10	-3	14.9	14.9	-0.03	15.1	15.3	-0.18
Beno Udrih	52	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.10	-11	-12	1	14.9	14.9	0.01	15.1	15.4	-0.34
Brandon Jennings	43	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.08	-12	-11	-1	14.9	14.9	-0.01	15.4	15.1	0.34
Tobias Harris	58	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	-13	3	14.9	14.9	0.03	15.3	15.1	0.18
Shaun Livingston	55	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.10	-13	-10	-3	14.5	15.5	-0.93	14.6	16.1	-1.55
Luc Mbah a Moute	47	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.23	-18	-5	-13	14.1	15.7	-1.64	14.5	15.9	-1.43
Drew Gooden	60	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.15	-17	-6	-11	14.4	15.8	-1.32	14.6	16.2	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 112, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%
LAC 119, BOS 106	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	97.7%
HOU 120, CLE 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.7%