NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	95		Excitement	7.6 [251]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +31.1%
Dallas Mavericks	86		Comeback	2.1 [359]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -21.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendrick Perkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Reggie Jackson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.06,-0.03	0.01	0.02	0.05	24	57%	0.18	6	-0.21	10	90%	0.05
Kevin Durant	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.13,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	19	46%	0.08	3	-0.13	12	67%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	8	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	11	34%	-0.07	1	-0.04	7	57%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.32,0.31	0.31	0.21	0.09	-0.01	10	86%	0.42	2	-0.11	9	100%	0.08
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	5	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	6	42%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.12,-0.18,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	15	40%	-0.02	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	8	37%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	10	36%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.12	-0.01	13	32%	-0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	15	24%	-0.22	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	3.6	30.4	19.4	28.3	2.7	41.3	153.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +49.4%

DAL -17.9%

OKC +24.8%

DAL -11.9%

OKC +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DAL	NBA	OKC	DAL	NBA
this game	13.8	15.6	15.6	96.0	88.7	102.8
season	14.7	15.5		107.9	101.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		100.9	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.4	13.6	13.2	14.0	13.8
DAL	16.9	15.8	16.2	13.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	82	80	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.25	12	-3	15	14.0	12.7	1.33	15.6	15.5	0.15
Russell Westbrook	77	77	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.24	5	4	1	13.7	14.3	-0.66	15.5	16.1	-0.70
James Harden	74	73	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	5	-1	14.1	13.0	1.03	14.8	18.1	-3.30
Kevin Durant	88	86	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	6	-3	13.9	13.5	0.40	15.3	17.7	-2.40
Kendrick Perkins	60	57	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	5	-1	13.6	14.1	-0.40	15.4	15.9	-0.56
Daequan Cook	51	50	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.07	11	-2	13	12.8	14.8	-1.99	16.9	14.2	2.73
Nick Collison	41	42	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	7	-5	14.2	13.5	0.70	16.3	15.1	1.17
Reggie Jackson	22	20	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	5	-1	14.3	13.7	0.66	16.1	15.5	0.70

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yi Jianlian	17	17	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-9	9	16.8	15.3	1.41	14.4	13.7	0.66
Ian Mahinmi	45	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-5	1	16.5	14.8	1.62	13.3	14.2	-0.89
Delonte West	32	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-5	1	16.9	15.0	1.91	13.6	13.9	-0.33
Shawn Marion	67	69	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-7	5	15.4	16.1	-0.68	13.5	14.5	-0.99
Rodrigue Beaubois	65	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-4	-1	15.0	16.9	-1.91	13.9	13.6	0.33
Brandan Wright	52	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-4	-1	14.8	16.5	-1.62	14.2	13.3	0.89
Jason Terry	73	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-5	1	15.1	17.1	-1.97	14.1	12.9	1.24
Vince Carter	57	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.07	-11	2	-13	16.4	14.4	1.95	13.5	14.2	-0.74
Dirk Nowitzki	77	78	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	1	-11	15.4	16.4	-1.01	13.9	13.5	0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.11,0.27,0.13,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.15,0.43,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 109, CHH 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.41,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.17,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.09,0	93.3%
CHA 105, NJN 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.55,0.16,0	92.6%
TOR 93, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.19,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.43,0.16,0	92.4%