NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	106		Excitement	7.4 [278]		MVP	Pau Gasol (LAL): +33.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	101		Comeback	1.5 [497]		LVP	Ricky Rubio (MIN): -28.1%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0.33	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.21	0.17	0.05	15	78%	0.33	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Kobe Bryant	0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.17	0.09	0.06	-0.02	29	58%	0.24	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bynum	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14	0.02	0.11	-0.01	14	60%	0.25	4	-0.11	7	71%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.00	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	4	42%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Andrew Goudelock	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	4	17%	-0.10	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.20	0.06	0.03	22	63%	0.22	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	8	68%	0.09	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.01	0.04	15	56%	0.07	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	15	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	8	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28	-0.28	-0.13	-0.16	-0.02	13	18%	-0.28	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	29.5	15.6	29.4	2.5	32.5	135.2
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +84.5%

LAL +7.7%

MIN -27.5%

MIN -18.1%

LAL +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIN	NBA	LAL	MIN	NBA
this game	16.7	15.1	15.6	116.5	112.2	102.8
season	16.2	15.3		103.8	102.6
opponent	15.1	15.1		104.7	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	18.0	16.3	18.0	14.7	16.7
MIN	15.4	15.0	14.7	15.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	64	63	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.19	19	-14	33	16.4	17.4	-0.99	15.4	14.4	0.94
Derek Fisher	62	62	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.28	12	-7	19	16.3	17.7	-1.38	15.7	13.8	1.86
Andrew Bynum	64	64	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.22	12	-7	19	17.5	14.9	2.65	16.4	11.9	4.52
Pau Gasol	80	78	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.35	3	2	1	16.6	17.5	-0.95	15.1	15.2	-0.08
Kobe Bryant	80	78	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.35	3	2	1	16.6	17.5	-0.95	15.1	15.2	-0.08
Troy Murphy	26	26	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	5	-5	16.6	16.8	-0.19	13.6	15.7	-2.14
Josh McRoberts	9	9	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	6	-7	17.6	16.6	0.93	13.9	15.2	-1.35
Jason Kapono	14	15	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	7	-9	16.4	16.8	-0.34	14.9	15.1	-0.20
Andrew Goudelock	29	28	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	12	-19	17.7	16.3	1.38	13.8	15.7	-1.86
Matt Barnes	27	27	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.25	-14	19	-33	16.2	16.9	-0.70	13.4	15.8	-2.47

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	20	20	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-5	5	14.9	15.1	-0.19	17.2	16.6	0.69
Anthony Randolph	30	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.31	9	-14	23	15.8	14.8	1.00	16.8	16.7	0.14
Derrick Williams	17	19	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-1	-3	15.7	15.0	0.75	17.5	16.5	0.96
Brad Miller	17	15	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-1	-3	14.3	15.3	-0.99	17.1	16.6	0.50
Martell Webster	44	46	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.43	10	-15	25	14.7	15.4	-0.68	15.4	18.1	-2.68
Michael Beasley	57	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.40	8	-13	21	14.8	15.7	-0.89	16.2	17.6	-1.40
Wesley Johnson	26	26	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.12	-15	10	-25	15.8	14.8	1.00	18.1	16.2	1.96
Kevin Love	78	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.37	1	-6	7	15.0	15.7	-0.75	16.6	17.2	-0.60
Nikola Pekovic	35	36	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.12	-16	11	-27	15.8	14.7	1.10	17.5	16.2	1.30
Ricky Rubio	79	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.41	2	-7	9	15.0	15.7	-0.71	16.9	15.8	1.10
Luke Ridnour	47	48	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.02	-16	11	-27	15.0	15.3	-0.30	16.4	17.0	-0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.3,0.26,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.46,0.6,0.45,0.46,0.32,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 102, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.41,0.24,0.4,0.46,0.28,0.32,0.04,0	91.6%
POR 88, PHI 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.04,0	91.6%
IND 90, BOS 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.33,0.39,0.28,0.14,0.04,0	91.3%