NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	88		Excitement	8.8 [145]		MVP	Mike Bibby (MIA): +16.3%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	2.9 [360]		LVP	Metta World Peace (LAL): -20.5%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bynum	0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.00	5	81%	0.17	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.02	11	46%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.04	-0.00	16	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.02
Steve Blake	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Barnes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	2	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Derek Fisher	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Shannon Brown	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.08,0.01,0.17,-0.07,-0.14	0.01	-0.12	0.03	21	51%	0.08	3	-0.22	5	80%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.21,-0.21	-0.03	-0.18	-0.00	11	41%	-0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.10	0.00	3	100%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.11	0.01	17	46%	0.14	1	-0.04	7	71%	-0.02
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	6	75%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	17	60%	0.13	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01	0.01	-0.09	0.10	0.00	23	43%	0.12	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	0.03	9	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	5	40%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.4	28.6	20.5	27.4	3.4	41.0	152.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +64.1%

LAL -12.0%

LAL -9.0%

LAL -0.0%

MIA +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	17.4	15.5	103.5	111.9	105.7
season	15.9	16.0		108.8	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.1	17.1	16.4	18.4	16.7
MIA	16.9	18.9	16.3	17.6	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bynum	65	64	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-8	10	17.0	15.7	1.32	17.4	17.3	0.11
Derek Fisher	59	58	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.22	5	-11	16	16.7	16.7	0.02	17.1	18.0	-0.84
Kobe Bryant	71	70	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.31	4	-10	14	16.4	18.2	-1.81	16.9	19.6	-2.63
Metta World Peace	64	64	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.24	1	-7	8	16.5	17.3	-0.83	17.0	18.7	-1.80
Pau Gasol	71	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-6	6	16.5	17.8	-1.29	16.9	19.9	-3.01
Steve Blake	21	21	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.06	-7	1	-8	17.4	16.5	0.90	19.1	16.8	2.29
Matt Barnes	21	20	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	1	-8	17.3	16.5	0.83	18.7	17.0	1.80
Shannon Brown	19	19	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.05	-14	8	-22	17.1	16.6	0.45	17.9	17.2	0.66
Lamar Odom	34	33	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.30	-14	8	-22	16.6	16.8	-0.25	18.3	16.8	1.57

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	42	43	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.32	16	-10	26	17.1	17.7	-0.57	17.4	16.0	1.44
Mike Bibby	37	36	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.39	9	-3	12	19.2	15.9	3.33	17.2	16.4	0.80
LeBron James	73	75	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.28	8	-2	10	17.3	17.9	-0.61	17.0	14.5	2.50
Mike Miller	30	31	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	-6	18	16.2	18.0	-1.79	15.9	17.1	-1.21
Dwyane Wade	71	70	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.34	-2	8	-10	16.9	20.0	-3.10	16.6	17.0	-0.36
Juwan Howard	18	19	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	-2	10	17.3	17.4	-0.13	15.4	17.1	-1.65
Chris Bosh	66	66	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.29	-2	8	-10	17.4	17.3	0.13	17.1	15.4	1.65
Joel Anthony	8	8	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	6	-6	17.7	17.3	0.41	16.5	16.7	-0.23
Erick Dampier	34	34	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.01	-10	16	-26	17.6	17.2	0.45	15.9	17.3	-1.42
Mario Chalmers	41	43	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.05	-9	15	-24	17.5	17.3	0.26	16.5	17.0	-0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.31,0.26,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.47,0.63,0.56,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 97, MIL 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.46,0.84,0.91,1	92.3%
IND 92, NOP 96	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.26,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.28,0.53,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.84,0.84,1	92.2%
POR 117, LAC 122	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.29,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.69,0.92,1	92.0%