NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	84		Excitement	4.8 [894]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +26.4%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	2.0 [1045]		LVP	Willie Green (NOH): -6.0%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.00	17	55%	0.15	3	-0.07	13	77%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	52%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Emeka Okafor	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	82%	0.08	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	39%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Jason Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	10	42%	0.03	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.03
Jarrett Jack	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	75%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.21	0.05	0.00	13	74%	0.26	1	-0.00	17	82%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.00	18	56%	0.14	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.06	0.06	-0.11	16	48%	0.20	5	-0.10	10	80%	0.03
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	5	43%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	32.5	17.4	32.5	2.6	34.2	147.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.9%

MIA +6.8%

NOH -3.9%

MIA +21.0%

NOH -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIA	NBA	NOH	MIA	NBA
this game	17.5	16.6	15.5	100.0	112.9	105.7
season	16.2	16.0		104.6	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.9		102.3	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	20.1	16.9	17.7	15.4	17.5
MIA	15.2	15.1	16.6	19.6	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	51	51	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.05	-8	-4	-4	18.2	16.3	1.90	17.1	15.9	1.25
Aaron Gray	17	19	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.17	-1	-11	10	17.8	17.4	0.42	16.1	16.8	-0.70
Jarrett Jack	23	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.18	-1	-11	10	18.5	17.1	1.42	14.6	17.4	-2.79
Jason Smith	21	22	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-8	4	16.8	17.7	-0.90	15.0	17.2	-2.16
Trevor Ariza	65	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.06	-10	-2	-8	17.3	18.1	-0.80	17.3	14.3	2.94
Quincy Pondexter	19	20	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-10	8	18.1	17.3	0.80	14.3	17.3	-2.94
David West	64	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	-3	-6	17.5	17.3	0.18	17.2	14.9	2.31
Chris Paul	61	62	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	-1	-10	17.1	18.5	-1.42	17.4	14.6	2.79
Emeka Okafor	66	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-2	-8	17.6	17.2	0.41	16.7	16.1	0.59
Willie Green	33	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.20	-4	-8	4	16.3	18.2	-1.90	15.9	17.1	-1.25

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	39	38	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	0	12	18.3	15.2	3.16	17.5	17.5	0.02
LeBron James	70	69	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	1	10	17.4	13.0	4.37	17.3	18.1	-0.79
James Jones	30	28	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	4	4	14.2	17.9	-3.76	18.6	16.9	1.68
Mario Chalmers	48	47	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.17	4	8	-4	16.5	16.8	-0.28	17.2	17.9	-0.67
Juwan Howard	17	16	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	8	-4	16.4	16.6	-0.24	17.9	17.4	0.56
Chris Bosh	68	68	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	4	4	16.6	16.4	0.24	17.4	17.9	-0.56
Carlos Arroyo	39	39	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	6	0	16.9	16.4	0.50	17.6	17.4	0.29
Dwyane Wade	68	69	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.03	7	5	2	16.8	15.8	1.04	17.3	18.4	-1.11
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	38	38	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.03	3	9	-6	15.5	17.5	-1.99	17.2	17.7	-0.51
Joel Anthony	8	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.02	-3	15	-18	13.5	16.9	-3.42	18.7	17.4	1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.86,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 86, MIA 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
SAS 81, CLE 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.8,0.84,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.95,1,1,1,1	94.4%
DET 86, SAS 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.99,1	94.4%