NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	86		Excitement	5.5 [696]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +10.6%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	2.3 [442]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -18.3%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.05	0.00	-0.12	17	52%	0.12	4	-0.05	6	67%	-0.00
Robert Horry	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	67%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Corie Blount	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jon Barry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	60%	0.00	1	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Mario Bennett	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	16	47%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	12	39%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Rick Fox	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.16	-0.08	-0.05	21	34%	-0.13	2	-0.05	5	20%	-0.09

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	8	75%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.04	-0.03	22	49%	0.12	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	17	52%	0.11	3	-0.09	8	62%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Charles Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	3	70%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	7	31%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ike Austin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.03	0.03	13	56%	-0.03	4	-0.10	8	62%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.4	24.3	16.4	25.6	3.3	32.7	131.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.1%

MIA +6.1%

MIA +24.9%

LAL -6.0%

LAL -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	15.0	15.6	89.6	109.6	102.5
season	14.8	15.8		110.0	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.6		99.8	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	13.5	15.9	16.3	15.6	15.3
MIA	15.4	14.1	17.2	13.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elden Campbell	51	50	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-21	25	15.6	14.9	0.72	15.8	14.2	1.58
Rick Fox	53	51	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.08	-1	-16	15	17.2	13.0	4.20	15.3	14.7	0.64
Mario Bennett	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	10.5	15.4	-4.87	7.7	15.3	-7.62
Jon Barry	16	17	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.07	-3	-14	11	12.5	15.8	-3.33	13.5	15.4	-1.85
Nick Van Exel	62	60	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-12	7	15.7	14.5	1.19	16.3	12.8	3.52
Robert Horry	63	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-14	11	14.8	16.1	-1.30	16.0	13.0	3.05
Corie Blount	33	31	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-14	-3	-11	16.1	14.8	1.30	13.0	16.0	-3.05
Derek Fisher	34	34	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	-5	-7	14.5	15.7	-1.19	12.8	16.3	-3.52
Eddie Jones	76	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.02	-16	-1	-15	14.8	17.0	-2.18	15.2	14.4	0.79
Kobe Bryant	55	54	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.14	-15	-2	-13	14.6	16.1	-1.49	15.1	14.9	0.25
Sean Rooks	35	34	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.06	-20	3	-23	15.5	15.2	0.29	14.4	15.4	-1.03

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Mills	36	35	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.08	21	-4	25	14.8	15.2	-0.38	15.5	15.1	0.43
Tim Hardaway	76	80	0.59	-0.09	0.67	-0.06	22	-5	27	14.9	15.4	-0.50	16.0	11.4	4.68
Mark Strickland	42	42	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.03	17	0	17	14.3	15.7	-1.37	15.0	15.5	-0.44
Voshon Lenard	52	54	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	5	7	15.4	14.6	0.81	15.7	14.7	1.07
Jamal Mashburn	85	87	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.08	8	9	-1	15.2	13.7	1.52	14.5	22.3	-7.79
Dan Majerle	40	40	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.00	8	9	-1	14.3	15.6	-1.34	15.3	15.2	0.09
Keith Askins	11	10	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	13	-9	15.7	15.0	0.78	16.9	15.1	1.82
Charles Smith	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	15	-13	9.0	15.3	-6.31	10.5	15.5	-4.98
P.J. Brown	35	38	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.07	0	17	-17	16.4	14.2	2.16	15.9	14.9	1.03
Eric Murdock	33	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	23	-29	14.7	15.2	-0.49	13.7	16.1	-2.38
Ike Austin	56	58	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	20	-23	15.5	14.3	1.18	15.3	15.2	0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 84, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.86,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
SAS 76, CHA 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
NYK 94, BOS 115	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.81,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%